Every batter on tonight's slate scored against their own historical HR signature — park type, opposing pitcher arsenal, month, days of rest. Only factors with a real statistical edge (Bayesian-shrunk, min sample 15 games) contribute. The model's live HR probability is on the right so you can sanity-check the DNA against tonight's simulated odds.
| # | Batter | Team | Opp pitcher | Pitcher arsenal | Score↓ | Fav / Tot | Matchup HR | HR vs Bullpen | Season HR | Top factors | Model HR% | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy Díaz | TBR | Jeffrey Springs | FB% 47% BAA .242 xwOBA .321 EV 87.9 | +2.94 | 8 / 8 | 0 | 1 | 22 | NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)Playing at home | 16.8% | |
| 2 | Isaac Paredes | HOU | Seth Lugo | FB% 52% BAA .247 xwOBA .329 EV 89.1 | +1.72 | 5 / 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 | NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherPlaying at home | 15.3% | |
| 3 | Max Muncy | LAD | Brady Singer | FB% 56% BAA .261 xwOBA .337 EV 90.1 | +1.17 | 5 / 6 | 0 | 1 | 29 | Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 17.8% | |
| 4 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SDP | Tanner Gordon | FB% 52% BAA .312 xwOBA .332 EV 89.2 | +0.78 | 4 / 6 | 0 | 1 | 23 | NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 20.8% | |
| 5 | Eugenio Suárez | CIN | Justin Wrobleski | FB% 63% BAA .238 xwOBA .334 EV 89.5 | +0.70 | 5 / 8 | 1 | 3 | 24 | NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 26.9% | |
| 6 | Mickey Moniak | COL | Michael King | FB% 52% BAA .218 xwOBA .313 EV 86.4 | +0.69 | 3 / 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | Playing at homeNOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 20.8% | |
| 7 | Mookie Betts | LAD | Brady Singer | FB% 56% BAA .261 xwOBA .337 EV 90.1 | +0.58 | 7 / 12 | 0 | 2 | 21 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%) | 19.8% | |
| 8 | Josh Bell | MIN | Walbert Ureña | FB% 54% BAA .202 xwOBA .283 EV 86.6 | +0.36 | 2 / 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | NOT Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 12.5% | |
| 9 | Bryce Harper | PHI | Nolan McLean | FB% 58% BAA .209 xwOBA .305 EV 87.9 | +0.35 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 2 | 28 | NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 14.8% | |
| 10 | Junior Caminero | TBR | Jeffrey Springs | FB% 47% BAA .242 xwOBA .321 EV 87.9 | +0.31 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 3 | 41 | NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphVs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 20.8% | |
| 11 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | Brady Singer | FB% 56% BAA .261 xwOBA .337 EV 90.1 | +0.26 | 3 / 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Playing at home | 17.4% | |
| 12 | Max Muncy | LAD | Drew Rasmussen | FB% 93% BAA .213 xwOBA .281 EV 88.9 | +0.25 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 29 | Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 13.5% | |
| 13 | Corey Seager | TEX | Sonny Gray | FB% 58% BAA .240 xwOBA .308 EV 89.0 | +0.22 | 2 / 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphNOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 15.6% | |
| 14 | Brandon Lowe | PIT | Kyle Harrison | FB% 60% BAA .254 xwOBA .329 EV 89.9 | +0.19 | 2 / 4 | 0 | 4 | 31 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 16.4% | |
| 15 | Mike Trout | LAA | Taj Bradley | FB% 68% BAA .234 xwOBA .316 EV 90.2 | +0.19 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 2 | 21 | Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 27.7% | |
| 16 | Bo Bichette | NYM | Aaron Nola | FB% 57% BAA .248 xwOBA .308 EV 88.4 | +0.18 | 1 / 2 | 1 | 0 | 17 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 12.4% | |
| 17 | Manny Machado | SDP | Tanner Gordon | FB% 52% BAA .312 xwOBA .332 EV 89.2 | +0.12 | 3 / 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 26.1% | |
| 18 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | Brady Singer | FB% 56% BAA .261 xwOBA .337 EV 90.1 | +0.09 | 1 / 2 | 2 | 2 | 30 | NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphNOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%) | 24.4% | |
| 19 | Riley Greene | DET | Erick Fedde | FB% 59% BAA .247 xwOBA .324 EV 88.3 | +0.07 | 4 / 9 | 1 | 0 | 21 | Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 17.5% | |
| 20 | Juan Soto | NYM | Aaron Nola | FB% 57% BAA .248 xwOBA .308 EV 88.4 | -0.05 | 1 / 2 | 2 | 4 | 25 | NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 27.0% | |
| 21 | Francisco Alvarez | NYM | Aaron Nola | FB% 57% BAA .248 xwOBA .308 EV 88.4 | -0.07 | 1 / 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 16.4% | |
| 22 | Daulton Varsho | HOU | Seth Lugo | FB% 52% BAA .247 xwOBA .329 EV 89.1 | -0.20 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 16.8% | |
| 23 | Marcus Semien | NYM | Aaron Nola | FB% 57% BAA .248 xwOBA .308 EV 88.4 | -0.30 | 2 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 16.8% | |
| 24 | Teoscar Hernández | LAD | Brady Singer | FB% 56% BAA .261 xwOBA .337 EV 90.1 | -0.34 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 19.8% | |
| 25 | Trea Turner | PHI | Nolan McLean | FB% 58% BAA .209 xwOBA .305 EV 87.9 | -0.42 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 9.0% | |
| 26 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Seth Lugo | FB% 52% BAA .247 xwOBA .329 EV 89.1 | -0.43 | 1 / 3 | 1 | 2 | 39 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 34.5% | |
| 27 | Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Nolan McLean | FB% 58% BAA .209 xwOBA .305 EV 87.9 | -0.45 | 1 / 4 | 0 | 3 | 46 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 15.6% | |
| 28 | Zach Neto | LAA | Taj Bradley | FB% 68% BAA .234 xwOBA .316 EV 90.2 | -0.50 | 0 / 2 | 1 | 0 | 26 | NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 16.8% | |
| 29 | Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Kyle Harrison | FB% 60% BAA .254 xwOBA .329 EV 89.9 | -0.52 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 18.1% | |
| 30 | Francisco Lindor | NYM | Aaron Nola | FB% 57% BAA .248 xwOBA .308 EV 88.4 | -0.60 | 1 / 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340) | 21.7% | |
| 31 | Will Smith | LAD | Brady Singer | FB% 56% BAA .261 xwOBA .337 EV 90.1 | -0.61 | 1 / 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | NOT Playing at homeVs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 21.1% | |
| 32 | Jose Altuve | HOU | Seth Lugo | FB% 52% BAA .247 xwOBA .329 EV 89.1 | -0.63 | 2 / 6 | 0 | 1 | 15 | NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 13.4% | |
| 33 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | Erick Fedde | FB% 59% BAA .247 xwOBA .324 EV 88.3 | -0.66 | 3 / 9 | 0 | 0 | 26 | NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 20.2% | |
| 34 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | Justin Wrobleski | FB% 63% BAA .238 xwOBA .334 EV 89.5 | -0.80 | 0 / 3 | 0 | 2 | 29 | Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 17.0% | |
| 35 | Kyle Tucker | LAD | Brady Singer | FB% 56% BAA .261 xwOBA .337 EV 90.1 | -0.85 | 4 / 9 | 0 | 2 | 16 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Playing at homeNOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 16.7% | |
| 36 | Yainer Diaz | HOU | Seth Lugo | FB% 52% BAA .247 xwOBA .329 EV 89.1 | -0.90 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 10.2% | |
| 37 | William Contreras | MIL | Wilber Dotel | FB% 100% BAA .250 xwOBA .294 EV 89.0 | -1.03 | 0 / 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 17.6% | |
| 38 | Hunter Goodman | COL | Michael King | FB% 52% BAA .218 xwOBA .313 EV 86.4 | -1.12 | 1 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 40 | NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 17.2% | |
| 39 | Jake Burger | TEX | Sonny Gray | FB% 58% BAA .240 xwOBA .308 EV 89.0 | -1.15 | 0 / 4 | 0 | 2 | 27 | Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260) | 17.5% | |
| 40 | Christian Yelich | MIL | Wilber Dotel | FB% 100% BAA .250 xwOBA .294 EV 89.0 | -1.38 | 0 / 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 17.5% | |
| 41 | Gleyber Torres | DET | Erick Fedde | FB% 59% BAA .247 xwOBA .324 EV 88.3 | -1.48 | 0 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | NOT Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 9.2% | |
| 42 | Christian Walker | HOU | Seth Lugo | FB% 52% BAA .247 xwOBA .329 EV 89.1 | -1.59 | 2 / 9 | 0 | 0 | 26 | NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 23.8% | |
| 43 | Brandon Nimmo | TEX | Sonny Gray | FB% 58% BAA .240 xwOBA .308 EV 89.0 | -2.11 | 1 / 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340) | 14.4% |