Every batter on tonight's slate scored against their own historical HR signature — park type, opposing pitcher arsenal, month, days of rest. Only factors with a real statistical edge (Bayesian-shrunk, min sample 15 games) contribute. The model's live HR probability is on the right so you can sanity-check the DNA against tonight's simulated odds.
| # | Batter | Team | Opp pitcher | Pitcher arsenal | Score↓ | Fav / Tot | Matchup HR | HR vs Bullpen | Season HR | Top factors | Model HR% | Save |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eugenio Suárez | CIN | Mitch Keller | FB% 60% BAA .250 xwOBA .332 EV 88.7 | +2.21 | 8 / 9 | 0 | 3 | 14 | NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)Playing at home | 24.9% | |
| 2 | Mookie Betts | LAD | Jake Bennett | FB% 79% BAA .218 xwOBA .265 EV 85.1 | +1.89 | 7 / 9 | 0 | 0 | 14 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 22.8% | |
| 3 | Ian Happ | CHC | Gerrit Cole | FB% 61% BAA .215 xwOBA .292 EV 89.2 | +1.82 | 5 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260) | 17.3% | |
| 4 | Isaac Paredes | HOU | Kumar Rocker | FB% 62% BAA .248 xwOBA .331 EV 88.8 | +1.78 | 5 / 9 | 0 | 0 | 15 | NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 14.9% | |
| 5 | Max Muncy | LAD | Jake Bennett | FB% 79% BAA .218 xwOBA .265 EV 85.1 | +1.53 | 5 / 7 | 0 | 0 | 22 | NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 11.5% | |
| 6 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KCR | Kyle Freeland | FB% 57% BAA .293 xwOBA .353 EV 89.9 | +1.50 | 7 / 10 | 0 | 1 | 13 | Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 26.8% | |
| 7 | Jake Burger | TEX | Peter Lambert | FB% 45% BAA .252 xwOBA .317 EV 89.8 | +1.27 | 4 / 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 22.5% | |
| 8 | Randy Arozarena | SEA | Taj Bradley | FB% 68% BAA .235 xwOBA .316 EV 90.2 | +1.22 | 5 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 17.0% | |
| 9 | Junior Caminero | TBR | Anthony Kay | FB% 65% BAA .250 xwOBA .344 EV 87.5 | +1.15 | 5 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 30 | Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 22.4% | |
| 10 | Yainer Diaz | HOU | Kumar Rocker | FB% 62% BAA .248 xwOBA .331 EV 88.8 | +0.90 | 2 / 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 10.7% | |
| 11 | Corbin Carroll | ARI | Gavin Williams | FB% 58% BAA .220 xwOBA .314 EV 90.0 | +0.83 | 4 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher | 19.4% | |
| 12 | Ketel Marte | ARI | Gavin Williams | FB% 58% BAA .220 xwOBA .314 EV 90.0 | +0.81 | 4 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 19 | HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%) | 17.3% | |
| 13 | Nathaniel Lowe | CIN | Mitch Keller | FB% 60% BAA .250 xwOBA .332 EV 88.7 | +0.79 | 2 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | Playing at homeNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 17.6% | |
| 14 | Josh Naylor | SEA | Taj Bradley | FB% 68% BAA .235 xwOBA .316 EV 90.2 | +0.78 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 11.5% | |
| 15 | Josh Bell | MIN | George Kirby | FB% 57% BAA .251 xwOBA .309 EV 89.5 | +0.78 | 3 / 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | NOT Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 20.0% | |
| 16 | Nolan Arenado | ARI | Gavin Williams | FB% 58% BAA .220 xwOBA .314 EV 90.0 | +0.60 | 2 / 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 11.6% | |
| 17 | William Contreras | MIL | Walbert Ureña | FB% 54% BAA .199 xwOBA .277 EV 86.0 | +0.59 | 2 / 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 9.8% | |
| 18 | Riley Greene | DET | Gage Jump | BAA .261 xwOBA .310 EV 89.4 | +0.59 | 6 / 11 | 0 | 0 | 16 | NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 17.0% | |
| 19 | Ryan McMahon | NYY | Colin Rea | FB% 62% BAA .252 xwOBA .336 EV 89.5 | +0.55 | 3 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Playing at homeSummer game (Jun-Aug) | 19.1% | |
| 20 | Willson Contreras | BOS | Emmet Sheehan | FB% 46% BAA .220 xwOBA .290 EV 89.2 | +0.54 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 23 | Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 21.8% | |
| 21 | Bryan Reynolds | PIT | Chase Burns | FB% 57% BAA .214 xwOBA .294 EV 88.7 | +0.52 | 1 / 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 11.6% | |
| 22 | Mickey Moniak | COL | Seth Lugo | FB% 52% BAA .242 xwOBA .330 EV 89.3 | +0.50 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 17 | Playing at homeVs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 34.7% | |
| 23 | Zach Neto | LAA | Jacob Misiorowski | FB% 58% BAA .172 xwOBA .229 EV 87.1 | +0.50 | 2 / 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 15.3% | |
| 24 | Trent Grisham | NYY | Colin Rea | FB% 62% BAA .252 xwOBA .336 EV 89.5 | +0.44 | 2 / 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | NOT Playing at homeNOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 18.4% | |
| 25 | Spencer Torkelson | DET | Gage Jump | BAA .261 xwOBA .310 EV 89.4 | +0.43 | 4 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 22 | Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 28.6% | |
| 26 | Trea Turner | PHI | Kyle Bradish | FB% 51% BAA .221 xwOBA .297 EV 89.3 | +0.42 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct) | 8.5% | |
| 27 | Max Kepler | ARI | Gavin Williams | FB% 58% BAA .220 xwOBA .314 EV 90.0 | +0.40 | 3 / 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | NOT Playing at homeHR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 16.1% | |
| 28 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | Mitch Keller | FB% 60% BAA .250 xwOBA .332 EV 88.7 | +0.35 | 2 / 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 20.0% | |
| 29 | Jo Adell | LAA | Jacob Misiorowski | FB% 58% BAA .172 xwOBA .229 EV 87.1 | +0.31 | 1 / 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 15.8% | |
| 30 | Paul Goldschmidt | NYY | Colin Rea | FB% 62% BAA .252 xwOBA .336 EV 89.5 | +0.29 | 1 / 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 10.8% | |
| 31 | Yandy Díaz | TBR | Anthony Kay | FB% 65% BAA .250 xwOBA .344 EV 87.5 | +0.28 | 5 / 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)Summer game (Jun-Aug)Playing at home | 16.0% | |
| 32 | Brandon Lowe | PIT | Chase Burns | FB% 57% BAA .214 xwOBA .294 EV 88.7 | +0.20 | 4 / 6 | 1 | 0 | 23 | HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%) | 20.3% | |
| 33 | Austin Riley | ATL | Cade Cavalli | FB% 54% BAA .259 xwOBA .310 EV 88.9 | +0.19 | 4 / 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 15.2% | |
| 34 | Bo Bichette | NYM | Sandy Alcantara | FB% 57% BAA .245 xwOBA .322 EV 88.6 | +0.18 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 11.8% | |
| 35 | Bryce Harper | PHI | Kyle Bradish | FB% 51% BAA .221 xwOBA .297 EV 89.3 | +0.17 | 3 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 14.7% | |
| 36 | Kyle Schwarber | PHI | Kyle Bradish | FB% 51% BAA .221 xwOBA .297 EV 89.3 | +0.15 | 2 / 4 | 1 | 1 | 34 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 17.4% | |
| 37 | Andrew Vaughn | MIL | Walbert Ureña | FB% 54% BAA .199 xwOBA .277 EV 86.0 | +0.09 | 3 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Playing at homeNOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 10.2% | |
| 38 | Lane Thomas | KCR | Kyle Freeland | FB% 57% BAA .293 xwOBA .353 EV 89.9 | +0.00 | 0 / 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | — | 17.9% | |
| 39 | Francisco Alvarez | NYM | Sandy Alcantara | FB% 57% BAA .245 xwOBA .322 EV 88.6 | -0.07 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 11.3% | |
| 40 | Jorge Polanco | NYM | Sandy Alcantara | FB% 57% BAA .245 xwOBA .322 EV 88.6 | -0.10 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 14.1% | |
| 41 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | Kumar Rocker | FB% 62% BAA .248 xwOBA .331 EV 88.8 | -0.18 | 2 / 4 | 2 | 1 | 35 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 28.2% | |
| 42 | Daulton Varsho | TOR | Matthew Liberatore | FB% 54% BAA .263 xwOBA .344 EV 89.5 | -0.20 | 1 / 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 12.8% | |
| 43 | Cal Raleigh | SEA | Taj Bradley | FB% 68% BAA .235 xwOBA .316 EV 90.2 | -0.22 | 1 / 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 28.3% | |
| 44 | Manny Machado | SDP | Landen Roupp | FB% 47% BAA .238 xwOBA .306 EV 86.1 | -0.26 | 3 / 8 | 1 | 0 | 23 | Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)Summer game (Jun-Aug) | 14.5% | |
| 45 | Josh Jung | TEX | Peter Lambert | FB% 45% BAA .252 xwOBA .317 EV 89.8 | -0.27 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 15.8% | |
| 46 | Willy Adames | SFG | Michael King | FB% 52% BAA .219 xwOBA .314 EV 86.5 | -0.28 | 4 / 10 | 0 | 0 | 18 | Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340) | 17.9% | |
| 47 | Christian Walker | HOU | Kumar Rocker | FB% 62% BAA .248 xwOBA .331 EV 88.8 | -0.29 | 3 / 10 | 0 | 1 | 23 | Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260) | 20.0% | |
| 48 | Taylor Ward | BAL | Zack Wheeler | FB% 68% BAA .200 xwOBA .264 EV 86.7 | -0.33 | 2 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)Playing at home | 11.2% | |
| 49 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | Jake Bennett | FB% 79% BAA .218 xwOBA .265 EV 85.1 | -0.34 | 1 / 4 | 0 | 1 | 24 | NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340) | 23.9% | |
| 50 | Spencer Steer | CIN | Mitch Keller | FB% 60% BAA .250 xwOBA .332 EV 88.7 | -0.34 | 3 / 9 | 1 | 1 | 17 | NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphNOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 18.4% | |
| 51 | Salvador Perez | KCR | Kyle Freeland | FB% 57% BAA .293 xwOBA .353 EV 89.9 | -0.46 | 3 / 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0) | 34.4% | |
| 52 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | NYY | Colin Rea | FB% 62% BAA .252 xwOBA .336 EV 89.5 | -0.47 | 2 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260) | 17.4% | |
| 53 | Gunnar Henderson | BAL | Zack Wheeler | FB% 68% BAA .200 xwOBA .264 EV 86.7 | -0.54 | 0 / 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 14.5% | |
| 54 | Shea Langeliers | OAK | Keider Montero | FB% 53% BAA .241 xwOBA .325 EV 88.7 | -0.55 | 1 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 24 | NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherHR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%) | 35.2% | |
| 55 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | Jake Bennett | FB% 79% BAA .218 xwOBA .265 EV 85.1 | -0.64 | 1 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Playing at home | 14.7% | |
| 56 | Juan Soto | NYM | Sandy Alcantara | FB% 57% BAA .245 xwOBA .322 EV 88.6 | -0.65 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%) | 20.1% | |
| 57 | Dansby Swanson | CHC | Gerrit Cole | FB% 61% BAA .215 xwOBA .292 EV 89.2 | -0.70 | 1 / 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%) | 13.8% | |
| 58 | Rafael Devers | SFG | Michael King | FB% 52% BAA .219 xwOBA .314 EV 86.5 | -0.74 | 2 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 18.8% | |
| 59 | Julio Rodríguez | SEA | Taj Bradley | FB% 68% BAA .235 xwOBA .316 EV 90.2 | -0.76 | 1 / 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherPlaying at homeHR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 21.0% | |
| 60 | George Springer | TOR | Matthew Liberatore | FB% 54% BAA .263 xwOBA .344 EV 89.5 | -0.81 | 1 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 20.8% | |
| 61 | Brandon Nimmo | TEX | Peter Lambert | FB% 45% BAA .252 xwOBA .317 EV 89.8 | -0.83 | 2 / 6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 21.0% | |
| 62 | Alex Bregman | CHC | Gerrit Cole | FB% 61% BAA .215 xwOBA .292 EV 89.2 | -0.88 | 1 / 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)Playing at homeNOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 10.4% | |
| 63 | Jose Altuve | HOU | Kumar Rocker | FB% 62% BAA .248 xwOBA .331 EV 88.8 | -0.91 | 2 / 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph | 11.4% | |
| 64 | Michael Harris II | ATL | Cade Cavalli | FB% 54% BAA .259 xwOBA .310 EV 88.9 | -0.91 | 1 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 20 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph) | 18.6% | |
| 65 | Hunter Goodman | COL | Seth Lugo | FB% 52% BAA .242 xwOBA .330 EV 89.3 | -0.93 | 3 / 10 | 0 | 1 | 33 | NOT Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)Summer game (Jun-Aug)NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 33.8% | |
| 66 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | Cade Cavalli | FB% 54% BAA .259 xwOBA .310 EV 88.9 | -1.01 | 2 / 8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)Playing at home | 15.3% | |
| 67 | Seiya Suzuki | CHC | Gerrit Cole | FB% 61% BAA .215 xwOBA .292 EV 89.2 | -1.06 | 0 / 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 16.4% | |
| 68 | Jorge Soler | LAA | Jacob Misiorowski | FB% 58% BAA .172 xwOBA .229 EV 87.1 | -1.13 | 0 / 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0) | 14.4% | |
| 69 | Christian Yelich | MIL | Walbert Ureña | FB% 54% BAA .199 xwOBA .277 EV 86.0 | -1.32 | 1 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%) | 10.2% | |
| 70 | Michael Busch | CHC | Gerrit Cole | FB% 61% BAA .215 xwOBA .292 EV 89.2 | -1.43 | 0 / 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | Playing at homeNOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10) | 16.7% | |
| 71 | Matt Olson | ATL | Cade Cavalli | FB% 54% BAA .259 xwOBA .310 EV 88.9 | -1.49 | 1 / 8 | 0 | 2 | 31 | NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%) | 19.1% | |
| 72 | Francisco Lindor | NYM | Sandy Alcantara | FB% 57% BAA .245 xwOBA .322 EV 88.6 | -1.52 | 0 / 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | NOT Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%) | 20.1% | |
| 73 | Kyle Tucker | LAD | Jake Bennett | FB% 79% BAA .218 xwOBA .265 EV 85.1 | -1.54 | 1 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)Playing at homeNOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0) | 15.7% | |
| 74 | Mike Trout | LAA | Jacob Misiorowski | FB% 58% BAA .172 xwOBA .229 EV 87.1 | -1.54 | 1 / 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 14.5% | |
| 75 | Teoscar Hernández | LAD | Jake Bennett | FB% 79% BAA .218 xwOBA .265 EV 85.1 | -1.59 | 1 / 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)NOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 17.6% | |
| 76 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | TOR | Matthew Liberatore | FB% 54% BAA .263 xwOBA .344 EV 89.5 | -1.64 | 0 / 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)NOT HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)Playing at home | 11.9% | |
| 77 | Cody Bellinger | NYY | Colin Rea | FB% 62% BAA .252 xwOBA .336 EV 89.5 | -1.68 | 2 / 8 | 1 | 2 | 11 | NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)≥1 career HR vs this pitcherNOT HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95) | 15.1% | |
| 78 | Pete Alonso | BAL | Zack Wheeler | FB% 68% BAA .200 xwOBA .264 EV 86.7 | -1.79 | 0 / 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | NOT Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)NOT Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)NOT Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%) | 19.7% | |
| 79 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SDP | Landen Roupp | FB% 47% BAA .238 xwOBA .306 EV 86.1 | -1.86 | 2 / 8 | 0 | 1 | 8 | NOT Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)NOT Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)NOT Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP) | 7.9% |