Model win probabilities and edges for every prop on tonight's slate — home runs, hits, total bases, and strikeouts — with the matchup, park, and form behind each number. These are probabilities, not guaranteed picks. Start with a prop type:
A player prop is a bet on an individual player's stat line rather than the game result — for example, whether a hitter records a home run, over/under on hits or total bases, or a pitcher's strikeout total. They're priced by sportsbooks per player, per game.
BallBet doesn't sell locks. It surfaces model win probabilities and the edge versus the posted line for each prop, then shows the matchup, park, and form behind the number so you can judge it yourself. The strongest spots are where the model probability diverges most from the market price.
Each prop is a simulation- and model-based probability that blends a player's pitch-type splits against the opposing arsenal, comp-stabilized small samples, park factors, and weather — then compares that probability to the sportsbook line to estimate an edge. They are probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes.
For how the model is built and how it has performed, see the methodology and backtest.