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Manny Machado
3B · RHB · RHP · SDP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Manny Machado, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-1 | 88% | +64.3% |
| A | 4-5 | 44% | +29.2% |
| B | 8-2 | 80% | +242.2% |
Combined 19-8 · n=27 · ROI +118.5% · avg CLV -4.7 pts · beat close 36%
Matchup
Manny Machado (RHB) vs Kohl Drake favors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.2
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=481 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-08-03
xStats luck
xwOBA0.315
wOBA0.295
delta−0.020 due
n=478 PA
Spray chart
826 balls in play since 2025· wind 9 mph cross-windBalls in play826
HR rate6.3%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo91.7 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive25%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+44.3%significant
n=434 games · 16/60 HR when active
+29.3%significant
n=438 games · 20/89 HR when active
-20.2%significant
n=440 games · 6/48 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
3 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +87% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
- +44% HR rate when vs fly-ball-prone pitcher (fb% allowed > 40%).
- +35% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight
1.87× HR rate
162 yes / 268 no · 76 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
1.63× HR rate
406 yes / 34 no · 77 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+48%
88 yes / 227 no · 57 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)tonight
+44%
60 yes / 374 no · 77 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
0.64× HR rate
289 yes / 151 no · 77 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+35%
214 yes / 226 no · 77 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+29%
89 yes / 349 no · 77 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+27%
51 yes / 385 no · 76 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+20%
308 yes / 126 no · 77 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−20%
48 yes / 392 no · 77 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−20%
41 yes / 395 no · 76 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−18%
216 yes / 219 no · 77 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−14%
118 yes / 322 no · 77 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+12%
61 yes / 367 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−11%
217 yes / 212 no · 76 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+8%
52 yes / 328 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−8%
98 yes / 338 no · 77 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−6%
8 yes / 432 no · 77 HRs
Playing at home
−6%
231 yes / 209 no · 77 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−6%
218 yes / 220 no · 77 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
82 yes / 354 no · 77 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
350 yes / 89 no · 77 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
5 yes / 423 no · 74 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
18 yes / 421 no · 77 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
61 yes / 358 no · 75 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 440 no · 77 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 434 no · 77 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Manny Machado across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.