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Josh Naylor
1B · LHB · LHP · SEA
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+9.6% edgemodel 73% · grade S
Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +35.9% lift over 149 games · strong vs the Curveball (32% usage, .398 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Josh Naylor, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-2 | 78% | +23.0% |
| A | 6-3 | 67% | +0.7% |
| B | 2-1 | 67% | +60.7% |
Combined 15-6 · n=21 · ROI +18.8% · avg CLV -3.9 pts · beat close 20%
Matchup
Josh Naylor (LHB) vs Framber Valdez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Framber Valdez's arsenal × how Josh Naylor hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,363 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.315
wOBA0.324
delta+0.009 hot
n=474 PA
Spray chart
894 balls in play since 2025Balls in play894
HR rate3.6%
Hard-hit (95+)36%
Avg exit velo87.9 mph
Ground ball45%
Line drive24%
Fly ball24%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+35.9%significant
n=315 games · 22/149 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +38% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
- +36% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Rested (2+ days off)
+47%
21 yes / 294 no · 39 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight
+38%
148 yes / 168 no · 39 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+36%
149 yes / 166 no · 39 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
0.66× HR rate
25 yes / 291 no · 39 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+30%
106 yes / 210 no · 39 HRs
// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Playing at home
−15%
161 yes / 155 no · 39 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+6%
116 yes / 200 no · 39 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
228 yes / 87 no · 39 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Josh Naylor across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.