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Jarren Duran
LF · LHB · RHP · BOS
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.3% edgemodel 19% · grade B
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Jarren Duran, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-5 | 64% | +115.6% |
| A | 5-5 | 50% | +77.8% |
| B | 8-4 | 67% | +157.6% |
Combined 22-14 · n=36 · ROI +119.1% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 37%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 1.0
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,268 PA · 2023-04-17 → 2026-07-12
xStats luck
xwOBA0.300
wOBA0.297
delta−0.003 due
n=399 PA
// SPRAY PROFILE NOT YET AVAILABLE — needs ≥1 season of batted-ball data
// PLAYER DNA
No statistically significant HR signature found at current sample size. We won't fabricate a pattern — most hitters need at least a half-season of data before factor lifts stabilize.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jarren Duran across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.