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Corbin Carroll
RF · LHB · LHP · ARI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Corbin Carroll, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-0 | 100% | +51.0% |
| A | 5-5 | 50% | -26.0% |
| B | 5-2 | 71% | +98.5% |
Combined 13-7 · n=20 · ROI +29.1% · avg CLV -0.7 pts · beat close 27%
Matchup
Corbin Carroll (LHB) vs Walker Buehler RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Walker Buehler's arsenal × how Corbin Carroll hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.8Plate Appearancesavg 4.8
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,600 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.354
wOBA0.357
delta+0.003 hot
n=493 PA
Spray chart
747 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing outBalls in play747
HR rate6.4%
Hard-hit (95+)53%
Avg exit velo92.8 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive22%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-42.3%significant
n=424 games · 5/67 HR when active
+70.0%significant
n=451 games · 43/210 HR when active
+36.9%small sample
n=451 games · 3/7 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +28% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- −26% HR rate when vs hr-prone pitcher (hr/pa > 3.8%).
- +22% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
3rd time through order vs starter
2.03× HR rate
311 yes / 140 no · 70 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
1.70× HR rate
210 yes / 241 no · 70 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+46%
194 yes / 250 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
0.58× HR rate
67 yes / 357 no · 68 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+36%
38 yes / 413 no · 70 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+30%
19 yes / 431 no · 70 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+28%
194 yes / 257 no · 70 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)tonight
−26%
97 yes / 354 no · 70 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+25%
100 yes / 351 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight
+22%
234 yes / 205 no · 68 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+37%
7 yes / 444 no · 70 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−18%
6 yes / 438 no · 68 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−16%
93 yes / 358 no · 70 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−13%
348 yes / 102 no · 70 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+12%
56 yes / 394 no · 70 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−11%
248 yes / 198 no · 69 HRs
Playing at home
+11%
232 yes / 219 no · 70 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+9%
174 yes / 273 no · 70 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+9%
46 yes / 402 no · 69 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+7%
225 yes / 80 no · 45 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−7%
137 yes / 314 no · 70 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+5%
61 yes / 387 no · 69 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
167 yes / 284 no · 70 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
66 yes / 324 no · 67 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
323 yes / 127 no · 70 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 451 no · 70 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 450 no · 70 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Corbin Carroll across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.