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Zach Neto
SS · RHB · RHP · LAA
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Away @
BAL
Starter
Stadium
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Model HR%
22.9%
Model Hits%
68.6%
Model K%
20.2%
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+6.9% edgemodel 23% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (43% usage, .471 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Zach Neto, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-1 | 50% | -16.0% |
| A | 2-3 | 40% | -32.4% |
| B | 1-1 | 50% | +48.5% |
Combined 4-5 · n=9 · ROI -10.8% · avg CLV -1.7 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Zach Neto (RHB) vs Brandon Young RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Brandon Young's arsenal × how Zach Neto hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.5
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.6
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,029 PA · 2023-04-15 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.310
wOBA0.328
delta+0.018 hot
n=510 PA
Spray chart
644 balls in play since 2025Balls in play644
HR rate7.0%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo89.2 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive23%
Fly ball34%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-1.2%small sample
n=255 games · 18/125 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +46% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- +30% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
+46%
201 yes / 55 no · 38 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+30%
101 yes / 156 no · 38 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−21%
54 yes / 203 no · 38 HRs
// 9 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
0.65× HR rate
14 yes / 242 no · 38 HRs
Playing at home
−17%
143 yes / 114 no · 38 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+15%
27 yes / 230 no · 38 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+15%
27 yes / 230 no · 38 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
125 yes / 130 no · 37 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Zach Neto across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.