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Jackson Merrill
CF · LHB · RHP · SDP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+1.9% edgemodel 67% · grade PASS
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (48% usage, .475 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Jackson Merrill, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-1 | 83% | +51.1% |
| A | 5-2 | 71% | +54.3% |
| B | 4-1 | 80% | +138.4% |
Combined 14-4 · n=18 · ROI +76.6% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 13%
Matchup
Jackson Merrill (LHB) vs Carson Whisenhunt favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Carson Whisenhunt's arsenal × how Jackson Merrill hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7Plate Appearancesavg 3.7
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 2.2
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.0
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,613 PA · 2024-03-20 → 2026-07-29
xStats luck
xwOBA0.320
wOBA0.311
delta−0.009 due
n=460 PA
Spray chart
680 balls in play since 2025Balls in play680
HR rate4.7%
Hard-hit (95+)46%
Avg exit velo88.9 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive26%
Fly ball30%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jackson Merrill across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.