BallBet's per-batter home-run signature: how much a hitter's home-run rate rises or falls under specific, pre-defined conditions.
HR DNA is a BallBet metric. For each batter, it measures the conditional lift in home-run rate across a fixed catalog of factors — the opposing pitcher's batted-ball traits (fly-ball rate, barrel rate, HR-per-fly-ball allowed), platoon handedness, count and times-through-the-order context, and ballpark and weather conditions such as temperature and wind.
Each factor is graded as a lift: the batter's home-run rate when that condition is present versus when it is not, expressed relative to the batter's own baseline. A signature only surfaces when the underlying sample is large enough to be meaningful, so a hitter with thin data shows no significant signature rather than a noisy one.
HR DNA answers a narrow, useful question: what kind of arm and what conditions does this specific hitter punish for home runs. It is research context for home-run props, shown alongside the model's projection — not a prediction on its own.
HR DNA is BallBet's per-batter measure of how a hitter's home-run rate changes under specific pre-defined conditions — opposing-pitcher traits, handedness, count and times-through-the-order context, and park and weather. It is shown as a set of lifts relative to that batter's own baseline.
A projection is a single number — the modeled probability a hitter homers tonight. HR DNA is the breakdown behind the context: which conditions historically raise or lower that hitter's home-run rate, each only shown when the sample supports it.