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Paul Goldschmidt
1B · RHB · RHP · NYY
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Paul Goldschmidt, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-0 | 100% | +128.9% |
| A | 4-6 | 40% | +81.1% |
| B | 6-7 | 46% | +94.0% |
Combined 19-13 · n=32 · ROI +99.8% · avg CLV -1.9 pts · beat close 30%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.2Plate Appearancesavg 3.2
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.3
Walksavg 0.3
Splits
Career n=2,314 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.306
wOBA0.325
delta+0.019 hot
n=384 PA
Spray chart
667 balls in play since 2025Balls in play667
HR rate4.2%
Hard-hit (95+)39%
Avg exit velo88.1 mph
Ground ball40%
Line drive24%
Fly ball30%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-20
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+34%
75 yes / 102 no · 23 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−25%
137 yes / 39 no · 23 HRs
// 5 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−16%
22 yes / 155 no · 23 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−11%
20 yes / 157 no · 23 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−9%
51 yes / 126 no · 23 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
94 yes / 83 no · 23 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
8 yes / 168 no · 23 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Paul Goldschmidt across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.