Jose Altuve

2B · RHB · RHP · HOU

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

Starter

Robbie Ray (LHP)

Stadium

Petco Park

Model HR%

11.2%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jose Altuve, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-1	75%	+18.1%
A	2-2	50%	+26.7%
B	3-4	43%	-11.1%

Combined 8-7 · n=15 · ROI +6.8% · avg CLV +0.3 pts · beat close 55%

Matchup

Jose Altuve (RHB) vs Robbie Ray LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Robbie Ray LHP · season · 127.9 IP · 550 BF

BAA

.210

wOBA

.327

SLG

.347

ISO

.137

WHIP

1.27

HR/9

1.13

BB%

10.9%

22.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.3%

HH%

37.9%

FB%

42.2%

HR/FB%

12.6%

Jose Altuve hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	564-2057	.274	.442	.168	80	8.9%	19.5%
vs LHP	140-473	.296	.463	.167	16	10.4%	19.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Robbie Ray's arsenal × how Jose Altuve hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Robbie Ray throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	50%	93.5	19%	.370
Slider	24%	87.0	30%	.365
Changeup	14%	85.1	33%	.345
Knuckle Curve	11%	80.7	36%	.420
Sinker	0%	93.0	0%	.355
Sweeper	0%	80.0	25%	.016

Jose Altuve vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	684	15%	.412	89.4
Slider	507	26%	.283	81.9
Changeup	290	20%	.234	82.3
Knuckle Curve	55	28%	.252	82.0
Sinker	653	13%	.335	84.2
Sweeper	339	26%	.273	80.2

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 1.3

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.3

Singlesavg 1.2

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 1.6

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.6

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-08-07 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	89%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=2,258 PA · 2023-05-19 → 2026-08-05

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	564-2057	.274	.442	.168	97	4	80	201	19.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	140-473	.296	.463	.167	29	1	16	55	19.9%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	424-1584	.268	.436	.168	68	3	64	146	19.4%
Last 15 days recent form	16-51	.314	.373	.059	0	0	1	2	11.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.276

wOBA0.300

delta+0.024 hot

n=406 PA

Spray chart

786 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play786

HR rate5.0%

Hard-hit (95+)31%

Avg exit velo84.5 mph

Ground ball46%

Line drive21%

Fly ball24%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

-35.7%significant

n=350 games · 23/197 HR when active

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+37.6%significant

n=320 games · 13/61 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+37.5%significant

n=365 games · 12/57 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-21

// TONIGHT

1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY

Mixed signals tonight

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+35% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
−21% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+46%

136 yes / 221 no · 53 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+44%

49 yes / 320 no · 54 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+38%

61 yes / 259 no · 49 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+38%

57 yes / 308 no · 54 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

0.64× HR rate

197 yes / 153 no · 53 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight

+35%

166 yes / 203 no · 54 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−22%

263 yes / 106 no · 54 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight

−21%

56 yes / 313 no · 54 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+20%

132 yes / 237 no · 54 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+19%

63 yes / 291 no · 51 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+16%

257 yes / 108 no · 54 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+12%

66 yes / 302 no · 54 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−12%

64 yes / 193 no · 37 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−12%

19 yes / 349 no · 54 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+12%

277 yes / 91 no · 54 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−10%

62 yes / 305 no · 54 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−10%

3 yes / 354 no · 53 HRs

Playing at home

−8%

194 yes / 175 no · 54 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+8%

167 yes / 197 no · 54 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−7%

132 yes / 228 no · 52 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

−7%

2 yes / 367 no · 54 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

58 yes / 307 no · 54 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

neutral

32 yes / 337 no · 54 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

6 yes / 363 no · 54 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

175 yes / 193 no · 54 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

108 yes / 261 no · 54 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 365 no · 54 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	5	2	1	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-08-04	4	3	0	0	0	3-for-4 · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-08-03	4	2	0	0	0	2-for-4
2026-08-02	5	2	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-08-01	4	0	0	2	0	0-for-2 · 1 R · 2 BB
2026-07-31	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-29	5	2	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 R
2026-07-28	4	2	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-27	5	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K
2026-07-26	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jose Altuve across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.