← BACK TO SLATE
Freddie Freeman
1B · LHB · RHP · LAD
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Freddie Freeman, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-3 | 63% | +35.1% |
| A | 3-3 | 50% | +3.3% |
| B | 4-0 | 100% | +258.7% |
Combined 12-6 · n=18 · ROI +74.2% · avg CLV -0.6 pts · beat close 38%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 1.6
Singlesavg 1.5
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.7
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.1
Splits
Career n=2,676 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.368
wOBA0.371
delta+0.003 hot
n=499 PA
Spray chart
853 balls in play since 2025Balls in play853
HR rate4.9%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo89.7 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive26%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+44.5%significant
n=475 games · 59/359 HR when active
-19.3%small sample
n=475 games · 7/62 HR when active
-17.3%small sample
n=480 games · 7/60 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+45%
359 yes / 116 no · 71 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+36%
66 yes / 381 no · 68 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+34%
57 yes / 419 no · 71 HRs
Playing at home
−25%
259 yes / 221 no · 72 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−22%
306 yes / 174 no · 72 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−19%
62 yes / 413 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−17%
73 yes / 380 no · 70 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−17%
60 yes / 420 no · 72 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+16%
99 yes / 377 no · 71 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+15%
2 yes / 445 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−15%
223 yes / 255 no · 71 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−14%
218 yes / 257 no · 72 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−11%
254 yes / 210 no · 70 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−10%
208 yes / 272 no · 72 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−6%
37 yes / 439 no · 71 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+6%
193 yes / 281 no · 71 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
106 yes / 372 no · 71 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
139 yes / 341 no · 72 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
22 yes / 457 no · 72 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
377 yes / 102 no · 72 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
99 yes / 377 no · 71 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
237 yes / 99 no · 48 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
7 yes / 473 no · 72 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
50 yes / 364 no · 67 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
281 yes / 199 no · 72 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 475 no · 71 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 480 no · 72 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Freddie Freeman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.