Salvador Perez

DH · RHB · RHP · KCR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

CWS

Starter

Anthony Kay (LHP)

Stadium

Kauffman Stadium

Model HR%

18.0%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Salvador Perez, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	13-2	87%	+93.3%
A	8-8	50%	+107.8%
B	8-10	44%	-32.0%

Combined 29-20 · n=49 · ROI +52.0% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 46%

Matchup

Salvador Perez (RHB) vs Anthony Kay LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Anthony Kay LHP · season · 165.8 IP · 713 BF

BAA

.254

wOBA

.333

SLG

.419

ISO

.165

WHIP

1.47

HR/9

1.19

BB%

11.6%

18.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.4%

HH%

38.3%

FB%

31.2%

HR/FB%

16.5%

Salvador Perez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	586-2394	.245	.422	.177	104	6.4%	21.6%
vs LHP	148-585	.253	.414	.161	22	7.0%	21.7%

Pitch-type matchup

Anthony Kay's arsenal × how Salvador Perez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Anthony Kay throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	27%	95.7	16%	.461
TOPSweeper	20%	82.5	31%	.315
TOPCutter	19%	90.8	16%	.393
TOPSinker	18%	94.8	14%	.405
Changeup	14%	85.7	23%	.306
Slider	2%	84.2	33%	.313

Salvador Perez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	890	23%	.474	92.9
TOPSweeper	413	33%	.400	86.6
TOPCutter	268	24%	.372	89.1
TOPSinker	456	10%	.420	89.7
Changeup	291	24%	.277	88.9
Slider	516	33%	.394	88.9

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.6

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.4

Plate Appearancesavg 3.4

Hitsavg 0.6

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.6

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.6

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	82%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=2,559 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-19

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	586-2394	.245	.422	.177	110	1	104	165	21.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	148-585	.253	.414	.161	28	0	22	44	21.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	438-1809	.242	.425	.182	82	1	82	121	21.6%
Last 15 days recent form	8-38	.211	.237	.026	1	0	0	2	18.4%
vs Anthony Kay tonight's starting pitcher	2-7	.286	.286	.000	0	0	0	1	28.6%
@ Kauffman Stadium tonight's stadium	5074-19110	.266	.537	.271	982	0	1399	1360	16.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.304

wOBA0.281

delta−0.023 due

n=610 PA

Spray chart

946 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play946

HR rate5.5%

Hard-hit (95+)44%

Avg exit velo89.6 mph

Ground ball37%

Line drive24%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

-30.3%significant

n=466 games · 46/340 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+28.7%significant

n=469 games · 18/92 HR when active

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

-18.3%small sample

n=469 games · 1/14 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-22

// TONIGHT

0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY

No DNA factors in play tonight

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Rested (2+ days off)

+46%

34 yes / 434 no · 72 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+45%

176 yes / 284 no · 70 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

0.63× HR rate

78 yes / 250 no · 50 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−30%

340 yes / 126 no · 72 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−29%

70 yes / 397 no · 72 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+29%

92 yes / 377 no · 72 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+26%

48 yes / 419 no · 72 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+22%

432 yes / 37 no · 72 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+20%

128 yes / 331 no · 71 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−18%

14 yes / 455 no · 72 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−14%

140 yes / 329 no · 72 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−11%

217 yes / 252 no · 72 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+10%

181 yes / 283 no · 72 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−9%

93 yes / 376 no · 72 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−8%

73 yes / 370 no · 67 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−8%

67 yes / 330 no · 59 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−8%

206 yes / 263 no · 72 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+7%

364 yes / 104 no · 72 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−7%

2 yes / 457 no · 71 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−6%

97 yes / 371 no · 72 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

61 yes / 405 no · 72 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

265 yes / 204 no · 72 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

258 yes / 200 no · 70 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

230 yes / 239 no · 72 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

neutral

64 yes / 405 no · 72 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 466 no · 72 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 469 no · 72 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-20	4	2	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-19	1	0	0	1	0-for-1 · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-17	3	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-09-16	5	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K
2026-09-15	1	1	0	0	1-for-1
2026-09-13	4	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-11	4	2	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-09-09	4	0	0	0	0-for-4

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Salvador Perez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.