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George Springer
DH · RHB · RHP · TOR
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on George Springer, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-3 | 50% | -26.0% |
| A | 6-6 | 50% | +3.7% |
| B | 2-5 | 29% | -28.7% |
Combined 11-14 · n=25 · ROI -12.5% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 25%
Matchup
George Springer (RHB) vs Hayden Wesneski favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Hayden Wesneski's arsenal × how George Springer hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.3
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.4
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,385 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.346
wOBA0.379
delta+0.033 hot
n=371 PA
Spray chart
714 balls in play since 2025· wind 2 mph blowing outBalls in play714
HR rate7.3%
Hard-hit (95+)43%
Avg exit velo89.5 mph
Ground ball40%
Line drive24%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+36.1%significant
n=424 games · 14/59 HR when active
-22.9%significant
n=423 games · 42/280 HR when active
+22.0%small sample
n=424 games · 3/10 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY
No DNA factors in play tonight
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
3rd time through order vs starter
+42%
293 yes / 131 no · 71 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+36%
59 yes / 365 no · 71 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+32%
51 yes / 373 no · 71 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+24%
70 yes / 210 no · 49 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−23%
280 yes / 143 no · 71 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+22%
236 yes / 172 no · 68 HRs
// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+22%
10 yes / 414 no · 71 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+20%
74 yes / 349 no · 71 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+19%
80 yes / 344 no · 71 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−16%
233 yes / 186 no · 71 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−14%
70 yes / 277 no · 59 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+14%
160 yes / 251 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−13%
75 yes / 322 no · 68 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−13%
4 yes / 391 no · 65 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−13%
70 yes / 354 no · 71 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−12%
76 yes / 347 no · 71 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−12%
127 yes / 297 no · 71 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+12%
24 yes / 399 no · 71 HRs
Playing at home
−10%
228 yes / 196 no · 71 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−6%
108 yes / 316 no · 71 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+5%
56 yes / 368 no · 71 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
180 yes / 244 no · 71 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
52 yes / 343 no · 65 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
175 yes / 249 no · 71 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 423 no · 71 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 422 no · 71 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
323 yes / 100 no · 71 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to George Springer across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.