Ildemaro Vargas

1B · SHB · RHP · ARI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

CLE

Starter

Gavin Williams (RHP)

Stadium

Progressive Field

Model HR%

9.3%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+1.3% edgemodel 9% · grade PASS

Why: strong vs the Sweeper (22% usage, .384 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	9%	+1.3%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Ildemaro Vargas, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	6-5	55%	-6.9%
A	1-6	14%	-45.7%
B	0-5	0%	-100.0%

Combined 7-16 · n=23 · ROI -39.0% · avg CLV -3.0 pts · beat close 33%

Matchup

Ildemaro Vargas (SHB) vs Gavin Williams RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Gavin Williams RHP · season · 133.5 IP · 574 BF

BAA

.220

wOBA

.302

SLG

.396

ISO

.175

WHIP

1.20

HR/9

1.55

BB%

7.5%

31.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.7%

HH%

48.6%

FB%

27.9%

HR/FB%

28.4%

Ildemaro Vargas hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	90-335	.269	.409	.140	8	6.4%	9.6%
vs RHP	54-224	.241	.348	.107	3	7.8%	10.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Gavin Williams's arsenal × how Ildemaro Vargas hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Gavin Williams throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	35%	96.6	21%	.432
TOPSweeper	22%	86.6	45%	.395
Curveball	22%	82.1	31%	.338
Cutter	12%	91.7	18%	.349
Sinker	9%	95.9	9%	.392
Changeup	0%	88.2	0%	—

Ildemaro Vargas vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	367	6%	.301	86.2
TOPSweeper	83	24%	.384	90.0
Curveball	102	25%	.322	89.7
Cutter	93	5%	.343	83.2
Sinker	149	7%	.389	88.7
Changeup	169	18%	.339	89.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.4

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6

Plate Appearancesavg 3.6

Hitsavg 1.4

Singlesavg 1.1

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.7

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.2

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	9%	+1.3%	+1150	-1.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=358 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	90-335	.269	.409	.140	17	3	8	23	9.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	36-111	.324	.532	.207	6	1	5	4	8.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	54-224	.241	.348	.107	11	2	3	19	10.3%
Last 15 days recent form	13-31	.419	.484	.065	2	0	0	4	3.2%
vs CLE tonight's opponent (full roster)	1-11	.091	.091	.000	0	0	0	0	18.2%
@ Progressive Field tonight's stadium	0-160	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.299

wOBA0.309

delta+0.010 hot

n=357 PA

Spray chart

419 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph blowing out

Balls in play419

HR rate2.6%

Hard-hit (95+)34%

Avg exit velo87.0 mph

Ground ball48%

Line drive26%

Fly ball18%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	5	2	1	0	2	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-31	1	0	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-07-29	3	1	1	1	0	1-for-2 · 1 2B · 1 BB
2026-07-28	2	1	0	0	0	1-for-2 · 1 RBI
2026-07-27	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-07-26	2	1	0	1	0	1-for-1 · 1 BB
2026-07-25	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-07-23	5	3	0	0	0	3-for-5 · 1 R
2026-07-22	5	3	1	1	0	3-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 3 R · 1 BB
2026-07-21	5	1	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Ildemaro Vargas across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.