Eugenio Suárez

DH · RHB · RHP · CIN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

PIT

Starter

Mitch Keller (RHP)

Stadium

Great American Ball Park

Model HR%

24.9%

Model Hits%

68.3%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+8.3% edgemodel 68% · grade S

Why: Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%): +32.0% lift over 316 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (35% usage, .455 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	68%	+8.3%	40%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	25%	-2.5%	20%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Eugenio Suárez, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	7-8	47%	-5.8%
A	3-10	23%	-61.0%
B	3-11	21%	-10.9%

Combined 13-29 · n=42 · ROI -24.6% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Eugenio Suárez (RHB) vs Mitch Keller RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Mitch Keller RHP · season · 121.2 IP · 521 BF

BAA

.253

wOBA

.360

SLG

.410

ISO

.157

WHIP

1.39

HR/9

1.11

BB%

9.6%

18.8%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.9%

HH%

43.3%

FB%

32.8%

HR/FB%

15.0%

Eugenio Suárez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	59-297	.199	.377	.178	14	10.0%	40.1%
vs RHP	45-229	.197	.362	.166	10	8.8%	37.6%

Pitch-type matchup

Mitch Keller's arsenal × how Eugenio Suárez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Mitch Keller throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	35%	93.9	14%	.396
Sweeper	19%	82.4	25%	.359
TOPSinker	18%	92.7	13%	.335
Slider	12%	87.1	24%	.358
Changeup	8%	89.1	17%	.413
Curveball	7%	77.7	31%	.387
Cutter	2%	90.2	23%	.305

Eugenio Suárez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1058	27%	.455	93.0
Sweeper	319	33%	.274	85.0
TOPSinker	582	20%	.357	85.4
Slider	603	42%	.468	89.1
Changeup	269	37%	.392	91.7
Curveball	184	43%	.415	90.3
Cutter	194	25%	.390	89.5

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.5

Our model68% OVER+8.3% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 0.5

Singlesavg 0.2

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 1.7

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	8%	—	+550	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	68%	+8.3%	-150	+2.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	A	24%	+5.8%	+400	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-0.4%	+1750	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	25%	-2.5%	+265	+10.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	17%	—	+217	-2.9	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	15%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	43%	—	+160	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+1000	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	38%	—	+175	+0.4	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=330 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	59-297	.199	.377	.178	11	14	33	40.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	14-68	.206	.426	.221	3	4	11	48.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	45-229	.197	.362	.166	8	10	22	37.6%
Last 15 days recent form	5-37	.135	.297	.162	0	2	4	43.2%
vs Mitch Keller tonight's starting pitcher	0-8	.000	.000	.000	0	0	2	37.5%
vs PIT tonight's opponent (full roster)	10-54	.185	.407	.222	0	4	8	29.6%
@ Great American Ball Park tonight's stadium	2103-12039	.175	.378	.203	493	651	1644	46.7%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.265

wOBA0.291

delta+0.026 hot

n=328 PA

Spray chart

618 balls in play since 2025· wind 2 mph blowing in

Balls in play618

HR rate10.8%

Hard-hit (95+)43%

Avg exit velo89.7 mph

Ground ball33%

Line drive21%

Fly ball37%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+32.0%significant

n=436 games · 63/316 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

-23.0%significant

n=436 games · 9/68 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+28.5%significant

n=415 games · 18/74 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28

// TONIGHT

3 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning favorable

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+38% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
+35% HR rate when playing at home.
+20% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight

+38%

196 yes / 243 no · 80 HRs

Playing at hometonight

+35%

232 yes / 207 no · 80 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

0.65× HR rate

68 yes / 204 no · 46 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+32%

316 yes / 120 no · 80 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+28%

74 yes / 341 no · 78 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−28%

138 yes / 301 no · 80 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−24%

163 yes / 275 no · 80 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+24%

41 yes / 398 no · 80 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−23%

68 yes / 368 no · 80 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+21%

309 yes / 130 no · 80 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

−21%

98 yes / 341 no · 80 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

+20%

351 yes / 87 no · 80 HRs

// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+20%

102 yes / 317 no · 77 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−19%

95 yes / 344 no · 80 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−18%

228 yes / 203 no · 78 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+17%

15 yes / 423 no · 80 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−16%

203 yes / 236 no · 80 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−12%

10 yes / 429 no · 80 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

−10%

3 yes / 436 no · 80 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+9%

196 yes / 238 no · 80 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+8%

86 yes / 352 no · 80 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−7%

2 yes / 417 no · 77 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−7%

206 yes / 233 no · 80 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

61 yes / 310 no · 71 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

1 yes / 435 no · 80 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

174 yes / 259 no · 79 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

90 yes / 348 no · 80 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	4	1	1	0	0	3	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 3 K
2026-07-31	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-30	4	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-07-29	4	1	0	0	0	3	1-for-4 · 3 K
2026-07-28	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-26	5	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-25	4	0	0	0	0	4	0-for-4 · 4 K
2026-07-24	5	2	0	1	1	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-21	4	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-20	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Eugenio Suárez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.