Eugenio Suárez

DH · RHB · RHP · CIN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

LAD

Starter

Blake Snell (LHP)

Stadium

Great American Ball Park

Model HR%

19.1%

Model Hits%

64.2%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+18.8% edgemodel 64% · grade S

Why: NOT Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340): -31.8% lift over 375 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (39% usage, .455 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	64%	+18.8%	60%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	19%	+5.3%	40%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Eugenio Suárez, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-22	33%	+3.1%
A	6-14	30%	-42.5%
B	8-11	42%	+33.6%

Combined 25-47 · n=72 · ROI -1.5% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Eugenio Suárez (RHB) vs Blake Snell LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Blake Snell LHP · season · 36.0 IP · 155 BF

BAA

.181

wOBA

.222

SLG

.217

ISO

.036

WHIP

1.17

HR/9

0.00

BB%

11.0%

32.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.2%

HH%

14.8%

FB%

38.3%

HR/FB%

0.0%

Eugenio Suárez hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	88-417	.211	.424	.213	24	12.4%	38.1%
vs LHP	20-103	.194	.398	.204	6	18.3%	43.7%

Pitch-type matchup

Blake Snell's arsenal × how Eugenio Suárez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Blake Snell throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	39%	95.4	17%	.374
TOPChangeup	26%	85.5	45%	.272
TOPCurveball	21%	80.9	42%	.352
TOPSlider	14%	88.9	47%	.326

Eugenio Suárez vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1058	27%	.455	93.0
TOPChangeup	269	37%	.392	91.7
TOPCurveball	184	43%	.415	90.3
TOPSlider	603	42%	.468	89.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model64% OVER+18.8% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0

Plate Appearancesavg 4.0

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 2.2

Home Runsavg 0.4

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+650	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	64%	+18.8%	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	A	23%	+6.6%	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	19%	+5.3%	+621	-0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	13%	—	+283	-1.1	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	43%	—	+200	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+1300	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	B	33%	—	+230	-0.9	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=476 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-14

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	88-417	.211	.424	.213	17	24	59	38.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	20-103	.194	.398	.204	3	6	23	43.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	68-314	.217	.433	.217	14	18	36	36.3%
Last 15 days recent form	9-30	.300	.733	.433	1	4	6	20.0%
vs LAD tonight's opponent (full roster)	16-80	.200	.463	.263	6	5	10	36.3%
@ Great American Ball Park tonight's stadium	3822-19815	.193	.376	.183	1164	819	3517	46.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.295

wOBA0.322

delta+0.027 hot

n=474 PA

Spray chart

698 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph blowing out

Balls in play698

HR rate11.0%

Hard-hit (95+)42%

Avg exit velo89.3 mph

Ground ball33%

Line drive21%

Fly ball37%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

-31.8%significant

n=479 games · 13/104 HR when active

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+33.3%significant

n=479 games · 13/48 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

-23.8%significant

n=469 games · 40/249 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−22% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+33%

48 yes / 431 no · 90 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−32%

104 yes / 375 no · 90 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+30%

355 yes / 122 no · 90 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+28%

228 yes / 251 no · 90 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+27%

81 yes / 374 no · 88 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−26%

163 yes / 315 no · 90 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−24%

249 yes / 220 no · 88 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight

−22%

79 yes / 229 no · 56 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+22%

340 yes / 139 no · 90 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

−21%

108 yes / 371 no · 90 HRs

// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Rested (2+ days off)

+20%

18 yes / 460 no · 90 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−19%

75 yes / 402 no · 90 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−19%

219 yes / 260 no · 90 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−19%

146 yes / 333 no · 90 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+17%

120 yes / 339 no · 87 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+16%

385 yes / 93 no · 90 HRs

Playing at home

+11%

252 yes / 227 no · 90 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+10%

209 yes / 265 no · 90 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

−10%

3 yes / 476 no · 90 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−7%

2 yes / 457 no · 87 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−6%

113 yes / 365 no · 90 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+6%

90 yes / 389 no · 90 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−5%

193 yes / 280 no · 89 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−5%

220 yes / 259 no · 90 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

1 yes / 476 no · 90 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

11 yes / 468 no · 90 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

67 yes / 336 no · 78 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-09-14	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-09-13	4	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-12	5	3	0	1	1	0	3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 3 R · 1 BB
2026-09-11	3	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-2 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-07	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-06	5	0	0	0	2	2	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 SB · 2 BB · 2 K
2026-09-05	4	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-04	4	1	0	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Eugenio Suárez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.