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Christian Walker
1B · RHB · RHP · HOU
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Christian Walker, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-10 | 41% | -25.0% |
| A | 8-11 | 42% | -24.6% |
| B | 8-12 | 40% | +33.5% |
Combined 23-33 · n=56 · ROI -4.0% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 48%
Matchup
Christian Walker (RHB) vs Tyler Mahle RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Tyler Mahle's arsenal × how Christian Walker hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7Plate Appearancesavg 3.7
Hitsavg 0.4
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.7
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,570 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.298
wOBA0.312
delta+0.014 hot
n=609 PA
Spray chart
822 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-windBalls in play822
HR rate6.4%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.4 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive23%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+57.3%significant
n=507 games · 27/110 HR when active
-34.3%significant
n=507 games · 6/65 HR when active
+41.2%significant
n=503 games · 67/369 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +41% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- −22% HR rate when playing at home.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.83× HR rate
195 yes / 303 no · 84 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
1.57× HR rate
110 yes / 397 no · 84 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
+41%
369 yes / 134 no · 83 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+38%
87 yes / 417 no · 84 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+36%
443 yes / 64 no · 84 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
0.66× HR rate
65 yes / 442 no · 84 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+34%
70 yes / 437 no · 84 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+27%
101 yes / 405 no · 84 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−23%
188 yes / 306 no · 83 HRs
Playing at hometonight
−22%
259 yes / 248 no · 84 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−21%
15 yes / 491 no · 84 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+21%
58 yes / 445 no · 83 HRs
// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−24%
9 yes / 485 no · 83 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+18%
59 yes / 448 no · 84 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−17%
285 yes / 222 no · 84 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+16%
232 yes / 275 no · 84 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−13%
256 yes / 246 no · 83 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−13%
267 yes / 223 no · 83 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+12%
79 yes / 396 no · 80 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+12%
8 yes / 499 no · 84 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−8%
223 yes / 284 no · 84 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−7%
81 yes / 273 no · 52 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
78 yes / 353 no · 69 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
395 yes / 111 no · 84 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
155 yes / 352 no · 84 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 507 no · 84 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 503 no · 83 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Christian Walker across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.