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Aaron Judge
RF · RHB · RHP · NYY
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=270 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-05-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.450
wOBA0.429
delta−0.021 due
n=270 PA
Spray chart
562 balls in play since 2025Balls in play562
HR rate12.8%
Hard-hit (95+)54%
Avg exit velo94.3 mph
Ground ball35%
Line drive23%
Fly ball36%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+58.3%significant
n=328 games · 20/44 HR when active
-22.2%significant
n=338 games · 48/201 HR when active
-19.5%small sample
n=348 games · 3/20 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-23
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
1.58× HR rate
44 yes / 284 no · 87 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+23%
66 yes / 279 no · 93 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−22%
201 yes / 137 no · 92 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+22%
237 yes / 107 no · 92 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−22%
152 yes / 191 no · 91 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−19%
20 yes / 328 no · 93 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+19%
65 yes / 281 no · 93 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+17%
47 yes / 178 no · 64 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−16%
14 yes / 333 no · 92 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−16%
56 yes / 288 no · 92 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−15%
43 yes / 304 no · 93 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−15%
247 yes / 101 no · 93 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−13%
137 yes / 211 no · 93 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−12%
8 yes / 340 no · 93 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+11%
169 yes / 179 no · 93 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+11%
60 yes / 288 no · 93 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+10%
60 yes / 274 no · 90 HRs
Playing at home
−9%
174 yes / 174 no · 93 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+8%
116 yes / 232 no · 93 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
6 yes / 328 no · 90 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+7%
115 yes / 226 no · 90 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+6%
275 yes / 72 no · 92 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+5%
104 yes / 244 no · 93 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
63 yes / 285 no · 93 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
205 yes / 142 no · 93 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
55 yes / 251 no · 81 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 344 no · 92 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Aaron Judge across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.