← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +12.8% edge model 70% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Sinker (30% usage, .405 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 70% +12.8% 30% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 16% +2.6% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Joc Pederson, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-3 25% -71.9% A 1-4 20% -69.0% B 0-4 0% -100.0%
Combined 2-11 · n=13 · ROI -79.4% · avg CLV -7.9 pts · beat close 13%
Matchup Joc Pederson (LHB) vs Tyler Phillips RHP favors batter favors pitcher Tyler Phillips RHP · season · 55.1 IP · 237 BF
Joc Pederson hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 48-215 .223 .414 .191 10 13.3% 26.5% vs RHP 44-198 .222 .394 .172 9 13.2% 26.3%
Pitch-type matchup Tyler Phillips's arsenal × how Joc Pederson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Tyler Phillips throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker30% 95.6 9% .293 TOP Sweeper23% 84.5 43% .311 Curveball 21% 84.0 41% .386 TOP Splitter17% 87.4 34% .247 Four-Seam 8% 95.2 8% .420 Cutter 0% 90.4 0% —
Joc Pederson vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker228 16% .405 96.7 TOP Sweeper95 36% .440 90.8 Curveball 162 33% .272 89.4 TOP Splitter65 39% .354 81.7 Four-Seam 690 20% .377 93.9 Cutter 145 21% .360 93.8
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits30% Total Bases20% Home Runs10% Singles30% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks30% RBIs10% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs40% Stolen Bases0%
30% 3/10 · L10 · avg 0.5
Our model 70% OVER +12.8% edge S
0 @KCR 06-10 2 @BOS 06-12 0 @BOS 06-13 0 @BOS 06-14 2 vMIN 06-15 1 vMIN 06-16 0 vMIN 06-18 0 vSDP 06-19 0 vSDP 06-20 0 vSDP 06-21
L5 20% 1/5 L10 30% 3/10 L20 45% 9/20 2026 45% 40/89 2025 41% 42/102
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.3 Plate Appearances avg 3.3
2 3 2 1 4 4 3 5 5 4 Total Bases avg 0.8
0 2 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.9
0 0 1 0 1 0 3 1 2 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 10% — +500 +1.1 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 70% +12.8% -135 -5.1 Sign in 1.5 OVER B 27% +4.7% +340 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 16% +2.6% +676 -3.5 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 11% — +248 +0.6 — 1.5 — PASS 8% — +700 +1.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 50% — +120 +1.0 — 1.5 — PASS 12% — +600 +3.2 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 44% — +167 +0.4 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -135 +340 +676
Price legs
Splits Career n=248 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
48-215 .223 .414 .191 7 2 10 33 26.5% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
4-17 .235 .647 .412 0 2 1 3 29.4% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
44-198 .222 .394 .172 7 0 9 30 26.3% Last 15 days
recent form
6-36 .167 .306 .139 0 1 1 3 27.8% vs MIA
tonight's opponent (full roster)
1-11 .091 .182 .091 1 0 0 3 27.3%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.321
wOBA 0.319
delta −0.002 due
n=247 PA
Spray chart 368 balls in play since 2025 · wind 10 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Tyler Phillips's mix Balls in play 368
HR rate 5.7%
Hard-hit (95+) 44%
Avg exit velo 91.0 mph
Ground ball 40%
Line drive 22%
Fly ball 29%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-20 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-5 · 2 K 2026-06-19 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-18 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-3 · 3 K 2026-06-16 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 2026-06-15 4 2 0 0 1 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-13 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-2 · 1 K 2026-06-12 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-3 · 1 R 2026-06-10 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-1 · 1 BB
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Joc Pederson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
