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Xander Bogaerts
SS · RHB · RHP · SDP
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+12.0% edgemodel 70% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (48% usage, .377 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Xander Bogaerts, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-5 | 50% | +12.1% |
| A | 3-2 | 60% | +15.9% |
| B | 5-3 | 63% | +39.1% |
Combined 13-10 · n=23 · ROI +22.3% · avg CLV -12.1 pts · beat close 20%
Matchup
Xander Bogaerts (RHB) vs Carson Whisenhunt favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Carson Whisenhunt's arsenal × how Xander Bogaerts hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.0
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,181 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-29
xStats luck
xwOBA0.303
wOBA0.291
delta−0.012 due
n=425 PA
Spray chart
724 balls in play since 2025Balls in play724
HR rate2.8%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.2 mph
Ground ball48%
Line drive24%
Fly ball23%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Xander Bogaerts across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.