Francisco Lindor

SS · SHB · NYM

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

PHI

Starter

Aaron Nola (RHP)

Stadium

Citi Field

Model HR%

23.8%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+5.9% edgemodel 20% · grade A

Why: Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260): +49.3% lift over 100 games · strong vs the Knuckle Curve (30% usage, .613 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	20%	+5.9%	30%	CAUTION
Hits	UNDER 0.5	34%	+1.0%	40%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Francisco Lindor, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	21-7	75%	+106.3%
A	5-14	26%	+8.9%
B	6-8	43%	+46.8%

Combined 32-29 · n=61 · ROI +62.3% · avg CLV -0.9 pts · beat close 49%

Matchup

Francisco Lindor (SHB) vs Aaron Nola RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Aaron Nola RHP · season · 165.3 IP · 711 BF

BAA

.264

wOBA

.307

SLG

.479

ISO

.215

WHIP

1.40

HR/9

1.91

BB%

8.4%

23.8%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.9%

HH%

39.8%

FB%

34.7%

HR/FB%

23.6%

Francisco Lindor hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	604-2374	.254	.460	.206	117	10.9%	21.2%
vs RHP	440-1688	.261	.464	.204	78	11.4%	22.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Aaron Nola's arsenal × how Francisco Lindor hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Aaron Nola throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPKnuckle Curve	30%	78.2	37%	.363
TOPFour-Seam	29%	91.8	13%	.445
TOPSinker	18%	90.8	8%	.434
Changeup	15%	84.9	26%	.303
Cutter	8%	86.1	25%	.422

Francisco Lindor vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPKnuckle Curve	70	33%	.613	96.5
TOPFour-Seam	1310	13%	.419	93.2
TOPSinker	368	15%	.424	91.4
Changeup	495	21%	.304	87.4
Cutter	280	26%	.430	89.8

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model34% UNDER+1.0% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA5.1

Plate Appearancesavg 5.1

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 2.2

Home Runsavg 0.4

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+400	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	34%	+1.0%	+206	+1.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	73%	-1.6%	-300	-1.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	20%	+5.9%	+603	+0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	13%	—	+236	+2.9	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+550	-1.4	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	47%	—	+101	+1.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	35%	—	+142	+1.4	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=2,664 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-14

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	604-2374	.254	.460	.206	121	8	117	290	21.2%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	164-686	.239	.449	.210	25	1	39	72	17.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	440-1688	.261	.464	.204	96	7	78	218	22.9%
Last 15 days recent form	11-51	.216	.510	.294	0	0	5	5	29.4%
vs Aaron Nola tonight's starting pitcher	2-21	.095	.238	.143	0	0	1	1	23.8%
vs PHI tonight's opponent (full roster)	25-112	.223	.366	.143	2	1	4	12	21.4%
@ Citi Field tonight's stadium	4285-19483	.220	.453	.233	349	302	1198	2606	24.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.336

wOBA0.337

delta+0.001 hot

n=431 PA

Spray chart

835 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play835

HR rate6.1%

Hard-hit (95+)47%

Avg exit velo91.1 mph

Ground ball37%

Line drive24%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+49.3%significant

n=437 games · 25/100 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+37.1%significant

n=433 games · 20/84 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-24.7%significant

n=414 games · 10/76 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−30% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+49%

100 yes / 337 no · 77 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+37%

84 yes / 349 no · 76 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+31%

92 yes / 343 no · 77 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

−30%

347 yes / 90 no · 77 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+30%

73 yes / 361 no · 77 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+27%

311 yes / 127 no · 77 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−25%

76 yes / 338 no · 76 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−21%

69 yes / 369 no · 77 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+19%

197 yes / 234 no · 77 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+18%

135 yes / 303 no · 77 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+17%

237 yes / 180 no · 72 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+16%

181 yes / 256 no · 77 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−13%

52 yes / 314 no · 59 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+11%

114 yes / 324 no · 77 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−11%

16 yes / 421 no · 77 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−10%

59 yes / 374 no · 76 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−9%

9 yes / 425 no · 77 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−6%

308 yes / 125 no · 76 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

211 yes / 227 no · 77 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

neutral

54 yes / 383 no · 77 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

175 yes / 256 no · 76 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

7 yes / 431 no · 77 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 437 no · 77 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

220 yes / 218 no · 77 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

262 yes / 175 no · 77 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 433 no · 76 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-15	6	1	1	0	1	0	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 BB
2026-09-14	5	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-13	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-12	5	3	0	2	0	1	3-for-5 · 2 HR · 5 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 K
2026-09-09	6	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-6 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-09-08	5	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 2 K
2026-09-07	6	2	0	0	0	3	2-for-6 · 1 R · 3 K
2026-09-06	4	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-05	5	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Francisco Lindor across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.