Victor Caratini

C · SHB · RHP · MIN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

SEA

Starter

Bryce Miller (RHP)

Stadium

T-Mobile Park

Model HR%

20.5%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+8.5% edgemodel 16% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .361 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	16%	+8.5%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Victor Caratini, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	1-8	11%	-80.9%
A	4-4	50%	-13.3%
B	4-10	29%	+81.5%

Combined 9-22 · n=31 · ROI +9.9% · avg CLV -3.6 pts · beat close 38%

Matchup

Victor Caratini (SHB) vs Bryce Miller RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Bryce Miller RHP · season · 66.0 IP · 284 BF

BAA

.204

wOBA

.259

SLG

.370

ISO

.167

WHIP

1.04

HR/9

1.64

BB%

4.9%

26.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.7%

HH%

32.3%

FB%

43.0%

HR/FB%

15.0%

Victor Caratini hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	63-279	.226	.355	.129	9	11.4%	22.6%
vs RHP	45-189	.238	.386	.148	7	10.4%	17.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Bryce Miller's arsenal × how Victor Caratini hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Bryce Miller throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	41%	95.2	18%	.406
Splitter	19%	84.3	27%	.365
TOPSinker	15%	94.7	6%	.381
Slider	10%	86.6	36%	.368
Knuckle Curve	9%	83.5	28%	.430
Sweeper	5%	83.3	21%	.300
Cutter	1%	90.3	38%	.106
Pitchout	0%	91.7	—	—

Victor Caratini vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	628	10%	.361	88.7
Splitter	104	32%	.277	81.6
TOPSinker	235	10%	.372	92.1
Slider	219	37%	.361	89.7
Knuckle Curve	49	32%	.198	91.3
Sweeper	98	13%	.436	92.9
Cutter	178	12%	.401	88.7
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

20%2/10 · L10 · avg 0.4

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA2.7

Plate Appearancesavg 2.7

Hitsavg 0.4

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.4

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 1.0

Walksavg 0.0

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	16%	+8.5%	+1319	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=315 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-07-29

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	63-279	.226	.355	.129	9	9	36	22.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	18-90	.200	.289	.089	2	2	14	33.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	45-189	.238	.386	.148	7	7	22	17.5%
Last 15 days recent form	7-33	.212	.242	.030	1	0	0	21.2%
vs Bryce Miller tonight's starting pitcher	0-5	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	40.0%
vs SEA tonight's opponent (full roster)	11-60	.183	.250	.067	1	1	3	18.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.323

wOBA0.310

delta−0.013 due

n=313 PA

Spray chart

511 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-wind

Balls in play511

HR rate4.1%

Hard-hit (95+)42%

Avg exit velo89.5 mph

Ground ball44%

Line drive25%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	K	Outcomes
2026-07-30	1	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-07-29	4	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-28	4	2	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 R
2026-07-25	3	2	0	0	2-for-3
2026-07-24	4	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-07-22	2	0	0	1	0-for-2 · 1 K
2026-07-21	4	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-20	4	1	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-07-19	4	1	0	0	1-for-4
2026-07-18	4	1	0	0	1-for-4

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Victor Caratini across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.