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Teoscar Hernández
LF · RHB · RHP · LAD
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Teoscar Hernández, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 4-2 | 67% | +18.3% |
| A | 0-7 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | 1-3 | 25% | -58.0% |
Combined 5-12 · n=17 · ROI -48.4% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.1
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 0.2
Splits
Career n=387 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-22
xStats luck
xwOBA0.310
wOBA0.319
delta+0.009 hot
n=386 PA
Spray chart
686 balls in play since 2025Balls in play686
HR rate6.6%
Hard-hit (95+)46%
Avg exit velo90.0 mph
Ground ball45%
Line drive21%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+49.3%significant
n=435 games · 19/86 HR when active
+48.7%small sample
n=440 games · 4/9 HR when active
+47.6%significant
n=435 games · 19/87 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-18
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+49%
86 yes / 349 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+48%
87 yes / 348 no · 66 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+32%
198 yes / 242 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−31%
65 yes / 340 no · 61 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+31%
137 yes / 303 no · 68 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−27%
114 yes / 325 no · 68 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−24%
73 yes / 334 no · 62 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+24%
55 yes / 385 no · 68 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+24%
55 yes / 384 no · 68 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−22%
215 yes / 210 no · 62 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+20%
87 yes / 350 no · 67 HRs
// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+49%
9 yes / 431 no · 68 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+19%
305 yes / 135 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−14%
194 yes / 243 no · 67 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−11%
328 yes / 107 no · 66 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+11%
21 yes / 418 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+11%
49 yes / 327 no · 54 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+7%
92 yes / 200 no · 42 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−7%
183 yes / 257 no · 68 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+6%
330 yes / 109 no · 68 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−5%
218 yes / 217 no · 68 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
171 yes / 258 no · 66 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 434 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
74 yes / 361 no · 66 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
231 yes / 209 no · 68 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
0 yes / 407 no · 62 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 440 no · 68 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Teoscar Hernández across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.