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Trea Turner
SS · RHB · RHP · PHI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5+4.8% edgemodel 70% · grade B
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Trea Turner, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 17-2 | 89% | +116.1% |
| A | 6-7 | 46% | +47.3% |
| B | 6-9 | 40% | +29.3% |
Combined 29-18 · n=47 · ROI +69.4% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 27%
Matchup
Trea Turner (RHB) vs Zack Littell RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Zack Littell's arsenal × how Trea Turner hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.1
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,521 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-02
xStats luck
xwOBA0.300
wOBA0.324
delta+0.024 hot
n=503 PA
Spray chart
870 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph cross-windBalls in play870
HR rate3.6%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo88.6 mph
Ground ball48%
Line drive23%
Fly ball24%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+92.6%significant
n=350 games · 27/171 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +93% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- +44% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
1.93× HR rate
171 yes / 179 no · 40 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
+44%
261 yes / 90 no · 40 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+27%
101 yes / 251 no · 40 HRs
// 9 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+19%
42 yes / 310 no · 40 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−6%
20 yes / 331 no · 40 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
189 yes / 163 no · 40 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
156 yes / 196 no · 40 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
221 yes / 131 no · 40 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Trea Turner across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.