Alex Bregman

3B · RHB · RHP · CHC

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

CIN

Starter

Rhett Lowder (RHP)

Stadium

Great American Ball Park

Model HR%

15.3%

Model Hits%

73.0%

Model K%

32.1%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+2.8% edgemodel 69% · grade PASS

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	69%	+2.8%	80%	LEAN
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	85%	+2.0%	80%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Alex Bregman, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-12	48%	-12.3%
A	6-9	40%	-22.7%
B	4-11	27%	-17.6%

Combined 21-32 · n=53 · ROI -16.7% · avg CLV -1.9 pts · beat close 46%

Matchup

Alex Bregman (RHB) vs Rhett Lowder RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Rhett Lowder RHP · season · 134.7 IP · 579 BF

BAA

.272

wOBA

.346

SLG

.444

ISO

.172

WHIP

1.48

HR/9

1.20

BB%

9.8%

17.4%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.7%

HH%

39.5%

FB%

34.9%

HR/FB%

14.6%

Alex Bregman hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	162-612	.265	.469	.204	29	12.2%	16.7%
vs RHP	122-469	.260	.469	.209	22	10.7%	16.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Rhett Lowder's arsenal × how Alex Bregman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Rhett Lowder throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Sinker	30%	92.4	5%	.416
Slider	25%	84.9	31%	.360
TOPFour-Seam	24%	93.1	13%	.355
TOPChangeup	22%	86.1	27%	.348

Alex Bregman vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Sinker	620	5%	.320	90.1
Slider	518	30%	.321	85.3
TOPFour-Seam	830	7%	.371	93.3
TOPChangeup	273	19%	.374	90.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model73% OVER-1.9% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.2

Doublesavg 0.4

Total Basesavg 2.1

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.3

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	9%	—	+390	-0.6	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	OVER	PASS	73%	-1.9%	-300	+0.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	PASS	69%	+2.8%	-200	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	85%	+2.0%	-476	-0.7	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	11%	—	+152	-0.2	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	55%	—	-140	+0.9	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	32%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	38%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=697 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	162-612	.265	.469	.204	34	2	29	85	16.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	40-143	.280	.469	.189	6	0	7	29	16.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	122-469	.260	.469	.209	28	2	22	56	16.8%
Last 15 days recent form	11-41	.268	.561	.293	4	1	2	9	7.3%
vs Rhett Lowder tonight's starting pitcher	1-7	.143	.286	.143	1	0	0	1	14.3%
vs CIN tonight's opponent (full roster)	18-76	.237	.434	.197	6	0	3	11	13.2%
@ Great American Ball Park tonight's stadium	623-2701	.231	.636	.405	155	0	313	158	18.4%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.318

wOBA0.356

delta+0.038 hot

n=697 PA

Spray chart

893 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing in

Balls in play893

HR rate5.4%

Hard-hit (95+)40%

Avg exit velo89.2 mph

Ground ball39%

Line drive23%

Fly ball27%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-24.3%significant

n=467 games · 28/215 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+30.9%significant

n=449 games · 14/68 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+29.4%significant

n=465 games · 17/85 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

0 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−30% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
−24% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

0.59× HR rate

252 yes / 211 no · 73 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+34%

54 yes / 414 no · 73 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−31%

316 yes / 152 no · 73 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+31%

68 yes / 381 no · 69 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight

−30%

110 yes / 358 no · 73 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+29%

85 yes / 380 no · 72 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight

−24%

215 yes / 252 no · 73 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−24%

17 yes / 450 no · 73 HRs

Playing at home

−24%

241 yes / 227 no · 73 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+24%

261 yes / 207 no · 73 HRs

// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+20%

80 yes / 384 no · 72 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+16%

74 yes / 326 no · 60 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+16%

251 yes / 198 no · 70 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

+15%

2 yes / 466 no · 73 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−15%

153 yes / 315 no · 73 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−14%

91 yes / 375 no · 72 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+14%

90 yes / 377 no · 73 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+13%

196 yes / 272 no · 73 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+11%

374 yes / 93 no · 73 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+11%

126 yes / 333 no · 70 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−10%

45 yes / 423 no · 73 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

191 yes / 271 no · 70 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

neutral

344 yes / 120 no · 72 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

neutral

12 yes / 447 no · 70 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

neutral

94 yes / 230 no · 48 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 468 no · 73 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 464 no · 72 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	5	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-18	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-5
2026-09-16	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-14	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-09-13	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 BB
2026-09-12	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R
2026-09-11	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-09-09	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-08	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-5

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Alex Bregman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.