← BACK TO SLATE
Alex Bregman
3B · RHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Alex Bregman, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-8 | 38% | -37.3% |
| A | 5-5 | 50% | +10.5% |
| B | 1-7 | 13% | -80.4% |
Combined 11-20 · n=31 · ROI -33.0% · avg CLV +0.3 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup
Alex Bregman (RHB) vs Dylan Cease RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Dylan Cease's arsenal × how Alex Bregman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=515 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-08-03
xStats luck
xwOBA0.311
wOBA0.325
delta+0.014 hot
n=515 PA
Spray chart
750 balls in play since 2025Balls in play750
HR rate4.4%
Hard-hit (95+)40%
Avg exit velo89.4 mph
Ground ball39%
Line drive23%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-30.2%significant
n=429 games · 24/204 HR when active
+33.2%significant
n=426 games · 14/70 HR when active
+25.1%significant
n=411 games · 12/63 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
1 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −40% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
- +30% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- −28% HR rate when playing at home.
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
0.60× HR rate
235 yes / 190 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+33%
70 yes / 356 no · 63 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+31%
48 yes / 382 no · 64 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−31%
291 yes / 139 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−30%
204 yes / 225 no · 64 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
+30%
340 yes / 89 no · 64 HRs
Playing at hometonight
−28%
221 yes / 209 no · 64 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+25%
63 yes / 348 no · 61 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−25%
107 yes / 323 no · 64 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−24%
17 yes / 412 no · 64 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+22%
104 yes / 317 no · 61 HRs
// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−19%
85 yes / 343 no · 63 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+17%
81 yes / 346 no · 63 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+16%
2 yes / 428 no · 64 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+16%
224 yes / 206 no · 64 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+16%
70 yes / 297 no · 54 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−13%
174 yes / 251 no · 62 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+12%
84 yes / 345 no · 64 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−12%
141 yes / 289 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+11%
230 yes / 183 no · 63 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+10%
308 yes / 118 no · 63 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−7%
38 yes / 392 no · 64 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
12 yes / 409 no · 61 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
170 yes / 260 no · 64 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
83 yes / 207 no · 41 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 426 no · 63 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 430 no · 64 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Alex Bregman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.