← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +12.9% edge model 69% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Changeup (21% usage, .385 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 69% +12.9% 70% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 16% +6.8% 20% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Carson Kelly, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 3-2 60% +72.9% A 1-4 20% +100.0% B 2-1 67% +24.1%
Combined 6-7 · n=13 · ROI +72.1% · avg CLV +1.7 pts · beat close 71%
Matchup Carson Kelly (RHB) vs Freddy Peralta RHP favors batter favors pitcher Freddy Peralta RHP · season · 87.7 IP · 377 BF
Carson Kelly hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 254-1043 .244 .387 .144 36 10.9% 21.7% vs RHP 183-782 .234 .367 .133 25 10.1% 22.0%
Pitch-type matchup Freddy Peralta's arsenal × how Carson Kelly hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Freddy Peralta throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 53% 94.5 20% .388 TOP Changeup21% 88.5 30% .296 TOP Curveball12% 79.5 31% .334 Slider 10% 83.5 48% .337 Slow Curve 2% 74.8 38% .363 Sweeper 1% 80.2 54% .067
Carson Kelly vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 744 14% .313 89.0 TOP Changeup187 31% .385 89.7 TOP Curveball132 35% .531 90.8 Slider 407 30% .269 87.2 Slow Curve 1 100% — — Sweeper 212 30% .367 88.3
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases50% Home Runs20% Singles40% Doubles30% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks40% RBIs50% Runs Scored70% Hits + Runs + RBIs80% Stolen Bases0%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 69% OVER +12.9% edge S
1 vSFG 06-07 1 06-09 0 06-10 1 06-11 0 @SFG 06-12 0 @SFG 06-14 2 06-17 2 vTOR 06-19 1 @NYM 06-23 1 @NYM 06-24
L5 80% 4/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 55% 11/20 2026 62% 44/71 2025 54% 64/119
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.7 Plate Appearances avg 3.7
4 1 2 4 4 3 4 6 4 5 Total Bases avg 1.8
1 1 0 4 0 0 3 5 2 2 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.5
1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-25 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 10% — +560 +0.3 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 69% +12.9% -127 +2.2 Sign in 1.5 OVER B 27% +5.0% +360 +1.7 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% +0.4% +2000 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 16% +6.8% +932 +0.5 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 11% — +215 +0.5 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 48% — +120 +1.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 44% — +190 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -127 +360 +2000 +932
Price legs
Splits Career n=1,170 PA · 2023-06-12 → 2026-06-23
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
254-1043 .244 .387 .144 38 2 36 127 21.7% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
71-261 .272 .448 .176 11 1 11 39 20.7% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
183-782 .234 .367 .133 27 1 25 88 22.0% Last 15 days
recent form
6-21 .286 .667 .381 2 0 2 6 19.0% vs Freddy Peralta
tonight's starting pitcher
2-12 .167 .167 .000 0 0 0 1 50.0% vs NYM
tonight's opponent (full roster)
7-47 .149 .234 .085 1 0 1 6 31.9% @ Citi Field
tonight's stadium
141-282 .500 1.000 .500 141 0 0 282 0.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.303
wOBA 0.327
delta +0.024 hot
n=219 PA
Spray chart 467 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Freddy Peralta's mix Balls in play 467
HR rate 4.9%
Hard-hit (95+) 40%
Avg exit velo 88.6 mph
Ground ball 39%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-24 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 2 R 2026-06-23 4 1 1 0 0 2 0 1-for-2 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 3 R · 2 BB 2026-06-19 6 2 0 0 1 2 1 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 6 RBI · 3 R · 2 BB · 1 K 2026-06-17 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-14 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-12 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-11 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-10 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-1 · 1 BB 2026-06-09 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-1 2026-06-07 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Carson Kelly across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
