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Corey Seager
SS · LHB · RHP · TEX
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5+2.4% edgemodel 73% · grade PASS
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Corey Seager, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | — | — | — |
| A | 1-0 | 100% | +51.0% |
| B | — | — | — |
Combined 1-0 · n=1 · ROI +51.0% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Corey Seager (LHB) vs Shane Bieber favors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Shane Bieber's arsenal × how Corey Seager hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,850 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-25
xStats luck
xwOBA0.379
wOBA0.353
delta−0.026 due
n=226 PA
Spray chart
440 balls in play since 2025Balls in play440
HR rate7.3%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo92.1 mph
Ground ball44%
Line drive22%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+46.8%significant
n=308 games · 19/59 HR when active
+45.6%significant
n=308 games · 16/48 HR when active
-24.4%significant
n=308 games · 5/37 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-23
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +25% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+47%
59 yes / 249 no · 67 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+46%
48 yes / 260 no · 67 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+37%
104 yes / 189 no · 65 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+25%
145 yes / 163 no · 67 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−25%
91 yes / 217 no · 67 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−25%
217 yes / 91 no · 67 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−24%
37 yes / 271 no · 67 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−22%
42 yes / 227 no · 56 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−20%
48 yes / 237 no · 64 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+19%
118 yes / 186 no · 66 HRs
Playing at home
+16%
166 yes / 142 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−13%
177 yes / 124 no · 64 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+13%
182 yes / 125 no · 67 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−12%
39 yes / 268 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+12%
48 yes / 260 no · 67 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 290 no · 65 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−10%
3 yes / 305 no · 67 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−10%
161 yes / 147 no · 67 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+9%
128 yes / 175 no · 67 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+8%
172 yes / 43 no · 44 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+7%
20 yes / 287 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+6%
38 yes / 269 no · 67 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+6%
192 yes / 115 no · 67 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
97 yes / 211 no · 67 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
229 yes / 78 no · 67 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 307 no · 67 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 308 no · 67 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Corey Seager across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.