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Byron Buxton
CF · RHB · RHP · MIN
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Byron Buxton, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
| A | 1-2 | 33% | -50.6% |
| B | 0-3 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 1-6 · n=7 · ROI -78.8% · avg CLV +1.4 pts · beat close 67%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7Plate Appearancesavg 3.7
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.7
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.2
Splits
Career n=372 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-07-28
xStats luck
xwOBA0.345
wOBA0.362
delta+0.017 hot
n=371 PA
Spray chart
603 balls in play since 2025Balls in play603
HR rate10.6%
Hard-hit (95+)50%
Avg exit velo91.6 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive21%
Fly ball35%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+40.0%significant
n=319 games · 20/62 HR when active
-25.4%significant
n=317 games · 8/52 HR when active
+19.1%small sample
n=320 games · 38/150 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+43%
32 yes / 288 no · 73 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+40%
62 yes / 257 no · 73 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−25%
52 yes / 265 no · 73 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−24%
77 yes / 244 no · 73 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+19%
150 yes / 170 no · 73 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+18%
228 yes / 92 no · 73 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+17%
67 yes / 252 no · 73 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+15%
98 yes / 223 no · 73 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−14%
124 yes / 189 no · 71 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−13%
43 yes / 277 no · 73 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−13%
9 yes / 312 no · 73 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+9%
68 yes / 253 no · 73 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+9%
39 yes / 282 no · 73 HRs
Playing at home
+7%
169 yes / 152 no · 73 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−6%
166 yes / 150 no · 73 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+5%
53 yes / 158 no · 49 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
55 yes / 257 no · 72 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
238 yes / 79 no · 73 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 316 no · 73 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
43 yes / 225 no · 60 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
8 yes / 304 no · 72 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
129 yes / 192 no · 73 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
47 yes / 250 no · 71 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
221 yes / 100 no · 73 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
26 yes / 294 no · 73 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
170 yes / 136 no · 70 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 321 no · 73 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Byron Buxton across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.