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Taylor Ward
LF · RHB · RHP · BAL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+10.9% edgemodel 66% · grade S
Why: Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%): +41.3% lift over 62 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (40% usage, .503 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Taylor Ward, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-7 | 59% | +9.1% |
| A | 6-7 | 46% | -13.1% |
| B | 5-10 | 33% | -32.3% |
Combined 21-24 · n=45 · ROI -11.1% · avg CLV -1.3 pts · beat close 54%
Matchup
Taylor Ward (RHB) vs Zack Wheeler RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Zack Wheeler's arsenal × how Taylor Ward hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6Plate Appearancesavg 4.6
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.7
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.8
Tonight's lines
2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,307 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-31
xStats luck
xwOBA0.342
wOBA0.337
delta−0.005 due
n=507 PA
Spray chart
736 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-windBalls in play736
HR rate6.1%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.9 mph
Ground ball35%
Line drive25%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+41.3%significant
n=304 games · 15/62 HR when active
+30.1%significant
n=277 games · 13/57 HR when active
-19.4%small sample
n=306 games · 8/61 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-09
// TONIGHT
1 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −36% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- −25% HR rate when playing at home.
- +23% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+41%
62 yes / 242 no · 52 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+38%
180 yes / 130 no · 52 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
0.64× HR rate
238 yes / 71 no · 52 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+36%
16 yes / 293 no · 52 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+30%
57 yes / 220 no · 48 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−28%
147 yes / 153 no · 51 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+27%
34 yes / 276 no · 52 HRs
Playing at hometonight
−25%
163 yes / 147 no · 52 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+24%
24 yes / 264 no · 50 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight
+23%
172 yes / 128 no · 49 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−19%
61 yes / 245 no · 52 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−19%
45 yes / 145 no · 33 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−16%
46 yes / 264 no · 52 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+14%
2 yes / 308 no · 52 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+13%
160 yes / 145 no · 50 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+12%
193 yes / 108 no · 52 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+10%
25 yes / 285 no · 52 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+10%
156 yes / 150 no · 52 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+7%
48 yes / 253 no · 52 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 286 no · 50 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
56 yes / 251 no · 52 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 309 no · 52 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
128 yes / 182 no · 52 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
75 yes / 235 no · 52 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
48 yes / 211 no · 43 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 301 no · 52 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
0 yes / 310 no · 52 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Taylor Ward across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.