Donovan Walton

2B · LHB · RHP · OAK

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

TEX

Starter

MacKenzie Gore (LHP)

Stadium

Sutter Health Park

Model HR%

7.6%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+6.6% edgemodel 12% · grade A

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (48% usage, .453 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	12%	+6.6%	0%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	62%	+6.2%	40%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Donovan Walton, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	2-0	100%	+78.5%
A	—	—	—
B	—	—	—

Combined 2-0 · n=2 · ROI +78.5% · avg CLV +12.8 pts · beat close 67%

Matchup

Donovan Walton (LHB) vs MacKenzie Gore LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

MacKenzie Gore LHP · season · 146.3 IP · 629 BF

BAA

.229

wOBA

.301

SLG

.387

ISO

.159

WHIP

1.31

HR/9

1.11

BB%

9.7%

25.4%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.4%

HH%

41.4%

FB%

34.5%

HR/FB%

15.0%

Donovan Walton hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	44-189	.233	.360	.127	4	13.7%	18.5%
vs LHP	5-33	.152	.333	.182	2	8.3%	15.2%

Pitch-type matchup

MacKenzie Gore's arsenal × how Donovan Walton hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

MacKenzie Gore throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	48%	95.3	18%	.400
Curveball	23%	81.6	33%	.421
Slider	11%	86.5	36%	.353
Changeup	11%	86.3	42%	.324
Cutter	5%	90.2	33%	.467
Sinker	2%	95.2	9%	.395

Donovan Walton vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	36	11%	.453	97.2
Curveball	12	0%	.228	96.3
Slider	11	20%	.928	99.6
Changeup	19	30%	.320	70.1
Cutter	17	40%	—	—
Sinker	23	6%	.147	80.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.4

Our model62% OVER+6.2% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA2.6

Plate Appearancesavg 2.6

Hitsavg 0.4

Singlesavg 0.3

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 0.5

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.3

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-08-17 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+546	+1.1	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	62%	+6.2%	-128	+2.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	20%	-0.5%	+380	+1.6	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	3%	-2.4%	+1750	+1.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	12%	+6.6%	+1699	-4.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+340	+3.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+900	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	44%	—	+120	+1.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+700	-1.4	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	31%	—	+195	-0.6	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=219 PA · 2024-03-16 → 2026-08-12

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	44-189	.233	.360	.127	10	1	4	30	18.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	5-33	.152	.333	.182	0	0	2	3	15.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	39-156	.250	.365	.115	10	1	2	27	19.2%
Last 15 days recent form	4-19	.211	.263	.053	1	0	0	4	5.3%
vs TEX tonight's opponent (full roster)	0-7	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	1	28.6%
@ Sutter Health Park tonight's stadium	220-1541	.143	.172	.029	0	0	15	285	20.7%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.291

wOBA0.325

delta+0.034 hot

n=164 PA

Spray chart

136 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play136

HR rate2.2%

Hard-hit (95+)33%

Avg exit velo84.8 mph

Ground ball47%

Line drive25%

Fly ball22%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-14	3	0	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-08-12	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R
2026-08-11	3	1	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-08-10	4	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-08-08	2	1	1	0	0	1-for-2 · 1 2B · 2 RBI
2026-08-05	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-08-04	2	0	0	1	0	0-for-1 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-08-02	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-08-01	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-1
2026-07-31	1	0	0	0	0	0-for-1

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Donovan Walton across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.