Brian Navarreto

C · RHB · MIA

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

STL

Starter

Kyle Leahy (RHP)

Stadium

Busch Stadium

Model HR%

10.0%

Model Hits%

69.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+10.3% edgemodel 70% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (31% usage, .645 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	70%	+10.3%	10%	CAUTION
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	10%	+2.6%	0%	CAUTION

Matchup

Brian Navarreto (RHB) vs Kyle Leahy RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Kyle Leahy RHP · season · 83.0 IP · 357 BF

BAA

.278

wOBA

.393

SLG

.432

ISO

.154

WHIP

1.48

HR/9

0.98

BB%

9.2%

19.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.0%

HH%

50.5%

FB%

26.5%

HR/FB%

16.7%

Brian Navarreto hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	7-24	.292	.542	.250	1	4.0%	16.7%
vs RHP	4-15	.267	.333	.067	0	6.3%	20.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Kyle Leahy's arsenal × how Brian Navarreto hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Kyle Leahy throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	31%	94.7	17%	.446
TOPSlider	19%	90.4	16%	.395
Curveball	17%	83.1	32%	.373
Sweeper	13%	85.9	25%	.394
Sinker	10%	94.3	6%	.394
Changeup	10%	89.2	31%	.413

Brian Navarreto vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	13	13%	.645	103.1
TOPSlider	14	20%	.497	86.5
Curveball	2	100%	—	—
Sweeper	7	67%	—	—
Sinker	5	0%	.153	97.3
Changeup	8	43%	.031	82.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

10%1/10 · L10 · avg 0.1

Our model70% OVER+10.3% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA2.0

Plate Appearancesavg 2.0

Hitsavg 0.1

Singlesavg 0.0

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 0.2

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-06-28 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+475	-0.8	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	70%	+10.3%	-147	-1.1	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	B	28%	+4.9%	+325	-3.1	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-1.4%	+1400	-0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	10%	+2.6%	+1245	-0.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+260	-1.2	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	54%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	42%	—	+195	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=25 PA · 2025-03-17 → 2026-06-24

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	7-24	.292	.542	.250	3	1	1	16.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	3-9	.333	.889	.556	2	1	0	11.1%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	4-15	.267	.333	.067	1	0	1	20.0%
Last 15 days recent form	0-2	.000	.000	.000	0	0	1	50.0%

Spray chart

19 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play19

HR rate5.3%

Hard-hit (95+)25%

Avg exit velo73.1 mph

Ground ball58%

Line drive5%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-24	3	0	0	1	1	0-for-2 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-03-17	1	1	1	0	0	1-for-1 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-03-16	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-03-14	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-03-11	2	0	0	0	2	0-for-2 · 2 K
2026-03-09	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-03-08	2	0	0	0	1	0-for-2 · 1 K
2026-03-06	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-03-03	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-03-01	2	0	0	0	1	0-for-2 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Brian Navarreto across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.