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Stadium
American Family Field
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +6.5% edge model 67% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (38% usage, .467 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 67% +6.5% 90% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 17% -3.7% 20% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jake Bauers, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 20-17 54% +15.9% A 4-8 33% -19.1% B 4-15 21% +1.9%
Combined 28-40 · n=68 · ROI +5.8% · avg CLV -3.7 pts · beat close 45%
Matchup Jake Bauers (LHB) vs Paul Skenes RHP favors batter favors pitcher Paul Skenes RHP · season · 123.5 IP · 531 BF
Jake Bauers hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 100-362 .276 .539 .262 24 14.2% 29.3% vs RHP 78-274 .285 .562 .277 21 14.9% 29.9%
Pitch-type matchup Paul Skenes's arsenal × how Jake Bauers hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Paul Skenes throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam38% 97.9 26% .382 TOP Sweeper16% 84.3 30% .269 Splitter 14% 93.7 20% .321 TOP Changeup12% 88.8 38% .260 Sinker 12% 97.3 12% .307 Slider 4% 85.3 34% .194 Curveball 4% 83.6 38% .437
Jake Bauers vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam553 14% .467 93.6 TOP Sweeper131 34% .375 91.9 Splitter 93 41% .267 93.2 TOP Changeup212 30% .439 90.9 Sinker 222 14% .381 92.7 Slider 202 31% .336 91.6 Curveball 169 26% .346 87.1
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits90% Total Bases50% Home Runs20% Singles80% Doubles10% Triples10% Strikeouts50% Walks50% RBIs30% Runs Scored60% Hits + Runs + RBIs90% Stolen Bases20%
90% 9/10 · L10 · avg 1.3
Our model 67% OVER +6.5% edge A
0 vNYM 07-22 1 07-24 2 07-25 2 07-26 1 @SFG 07-27 2 @SFG 07-29 2 @LAA 07-31 1 @LAA 08-01 1 @LAA 08-02 1 vPIT 08-03
L5 100% 5/5 L10 90% 9/10 L20 65% 13/20 2026 63% 74/118 2025 40% 38/94
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.0 Plate Appearances avg 4.0
4 4 4 4 2 5 5 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 2.2
0 1 2 3 1 4 5 4 1 1 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.5
1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 36% — +160 +0.0 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -155 +340 +2000 +375
Price legs
Splits Career n=422 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-03
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
100-362 .276 .539 .262 19 2 24 60 29.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
22-88 .250 .466 .216 8 1 3 12 27.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
78-274 .285 .562 .277 11 1 21 48 29.9% Last 15 days
recent form
14-36 .389 .639 .250 1 1 2 5 13.9% vs Paul Skenes
tonight's starting pitcher
1-7 .143 .143 .000 0 0 0 2 42.9% vs PIT
tonight's opponent (full roster)
17-64 .266 .406 .141 3 0 2 8 31.3% @ American Family Field
tonight's stadium
2536-12610 .201 .311 .110 206 0 393 2859 36.5%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.358
wOBA 0.395
delta +0.037 hot
n=422 PA
Spray chart 403 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Paul Skenes's mix Balls in play 403
HR rate 8.2%
Hard-hit (95+) 52%
Avg exit velo 92.0 mph
Ground ball 40%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 30%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-03 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-3 · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-08-02 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-08-01 4 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-07-31 5 2 0 0 1 1 0 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB 2026-07-29 5 2 0 1 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 3B · 1 R 2026-07-27 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-2 2026-07-26 4 2 1 0 0 1 0 2-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 BB 2026-07-25 4 2 0 0 0 1 1 2-for-3 · 3 R · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-07-24 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-07-22 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jake Bauers across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
