← BACK TO SLATE
Cody Bellinger
LF · LHB · LHP · NYY
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5+4.1% edgemodel 73% · grade B
Why: struggles vs the Changeup (22% usage, .280 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Cody Bellinger, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 0-4 | 0% | -100.0% |
| A | 2-2 | 50% | -22.2% |
| B | 3-3 | 50% | +38.8% |
Combined 5-9 · n=14 · ROI -18.3% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 8%
Matchup
Cody Bellinger (LHB) vs Rhett Lowder RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Rhett Lowder's arsenal × how Cody Bellinger hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5Plate Appearancesavg 4.5
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.4
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=326 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.330
wOBA0.355
delta+0.025 hot
n=324 PA
Spray chart
787 balls in play since 2025Balls in play787
HR rate5.5%
Hard-hit (95+)37%
Avg exit velo89.0 mph
Ground ball33%
Line drive24%
Fly ball35%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+75.8%significant
n=387 games · 21/82 HR when active
+64.3%significant
n=388 games · 21/88 HR when active
-33.1%significant
n=388 games · 3/40 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
// TONIGHT
7 / 10FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- +43% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- -34% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
- -33% HR rate when ≥1 career hr vs this pitcher.
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
1.76× HR rate
82 yes / 305 no · 60 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
1.64× HR rate
88 yes / 300 no · 60 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
1.53× HR rate
81 yes / 290 no · 59 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
0.53× HR rate
23 yes / 348 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+45%
57 yes / 283 no · 48 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+43%
180 yes / 208 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+41%
58 yes / 311 no · 57 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−34%
49 yes / 339 no · 60 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−33%
40 yes / 348 no · 60 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+31%
151 yes / 237 no · 60 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+24%
189 yes / 70 no · 37 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−23%
16 yes / 371 no · 60 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+22%
97 yes / 290 no · 60 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+21%
213 yes / 170 no · 59 HRs
// 14 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
+19%
1 yes / 385 no · 60 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−19%
224 yes / 164 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+17%
53 yes / 333 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−16%
232 yes / 142 no · 56 HRs
Playing at home
+15%
204 yes / 184 no · 60 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−13%
339 yes / 49 no · 60 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−13%
4 yes / 384 no · 60 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−10%
255 yes / 131 no · 60 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+9%
302 yes / 85 no · 60 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+7%
167 yes / 221 no · 60 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
142 yes / 241 no · 60 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
133 yes / 255 no · 60 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 388 no · 60 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Cody Bellinger across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.