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Cody Bellinger
LF · LHB · LHP · NYY
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Cody Bellinger, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-2 | 71% | +9.3% |
| A | 7-4 | 64% | +60.0% |
| B | 7-1 | 88% | +79.3% |
Combined 19-7 · n=26 · ROI +52.3% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 5%
Matchup
Cody Bellinger (LHB) vs David Peterson LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
David Peterson's arsenal × how Cody Bellinger hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 0.9
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.5
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-01 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=452 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-25
xStats luck
xwOBA0.323
wOBA0.324
delta+0.001 hot
n=450 PA
Spray chart
868 balls in play since 2025Balls in play868
HR rate5.0%
Hard-hit (95+)37%
Avg exit velo88.9 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive24%
Fly ball34%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+74.8%significant
n=421 games · 20/83 HR when active
-38.1%significant
n=422 games · 3/47 HR when active
+47.6%significant
n=368 games · 12/61 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
1.57× HR rate
87 yes / 334 no · 61 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+48%
61 yes / 307 no · 48 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
0.54× HR rate
23 yes / 381 no · 60 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+44%
89 yes / 333 no · 61 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+40%
97 yes / 324 no · 61 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+38%
96 yes / 308 no · 60 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
0.62× HR rate
47 yes / 375 no · 61 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+38%
183 yes / 239 no · 61 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−34%
52 yes / 369 no · 61 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+33%
67 yes / 337 no · 58 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+25%
231 yes / 186 no · 60 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−24%
317 yes / 103 no · 61 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−23%
17 yes / 404 no · 61 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−20%
242 yes / 180 no · 61 HRs
// 14 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
+21%
1 yes / 419 no · 61 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+20%
208 yes / 82 no · 38 HRs
Playing at home
+19%
221 yes / 201 no · 61 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+14%
185 yes / 237 no · 61 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−13%
370 yes / 52 no · 61 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−13%
4 yes / 418 no · 61 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+12%
328 yes / 93 no · 61 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+12%
133 yes / 289 no · 61 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−11%
249 yes / 158 no · 57 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+8%
155 yes / 262 no · 61 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
58 yes / 362 no · 61 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
190 yes / 231 no · 61 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 422 no · 61 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Cody Bellinger across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.