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Ryan McMahon
3B · LHB · RHP · NYY
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+11.2% edgemodel 69% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (24% usage, .486 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ryan McMahon, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-4 | 56% | +38.6% |
| A | 1-4 | 20% | +61.6% |
| B | 2-0 | 100% | +381.0% |
Combined 8-8 · n=16 · ROI +88.6% · avg CLV +0.3 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup
Ryan McMahon (LHB) vs Rhett Lowder RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Rhett Lowder's arsenal × how Ryan McMahon hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.0Plate Appearancesavg 3.0
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=212 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.287
wOBA0.281
delta−0.006 due
n=211 PA
Spray chart
476 balls in play since 2025Balls in play476
HR rate5.9%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo90.7 mph
Ground ball44%
Line drive22%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-18.7%small sample
n=347 games · 21/183 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
4 / 5FAVORABLE
Mostly favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- +68% HR rate when playing at home.
- +58% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- -48% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
Playing at home
1.68× HR rate
181 yes / 167 no · 45 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.58× HR rate
147 yes / 201 no · 45 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.52× HR rate
24 yes / 324 no · 45 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+36%
219 yes / 129 no · 45 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−23%
99 yes / 249 no · 45 HRs
// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−19%
183 yes / 164 no · 45 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+15%
17 yes / 330 no · 45 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+14%
251 yes / 96 no · 45 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ryan McMahon across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.