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Dominic Smith
DH · LHB · LHP · ATL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+15.9% edgemodel 78% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (36% usage, .378 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Dominic Smith, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-5 | 67% | +18.4% |
| A | 3-7 | 30% | -15.4% |
| B | 1-5 | 17% | -72.6% |
Combined 14-17 · n=31 · ROI -10.1% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 37%
Matchup
Dominic Smith (LHB) vs Janson Junk RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Janson Junk's arsenal × how Dominic Smith hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA2.7Plate Appearancesavg 2.7
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.3
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=1,429 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.295
wOBA0.314
delta+0.019 hot
n=280 PA
Spray chart
395 balls in play since 2025· wind 12 mph blowing inBalls in play395
HR rate3.5%
Hard-hit (95+)35%
Avg exit velo87.8 mph
Ground ball41%
Line drive25%
Fly ball29%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Dominic Smith across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.