Andrew Benintendi

DH · LHB · LHP · CHW

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

CLE

Starter

Gavin Williams (RHP)

Stadium

Progressive Field

Model HR%

15.5%

Model Hits%

63.7%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+2.8% edgemodel 16% · grade PASS

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (35% usage, .373 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	16%	+2.8%	10%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 0.5	64%	+2.8%	60%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Andrew Benintendi, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	8-2	80%	+33.5%
A	3-3	50%	-9.9%
B	1-3	25%	-60.2%

Combined 12-8 · n=20 · ROI +1.8% · avg CLV -6.7 pts · beat close 22%

Matchup

Andrew Benintendi (LHB) vs Gavin Williams RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Gavin Williams RHP · season · 106.0 IP · 456 BF

BAA

.232

wOBA

.323

SLG

.409

ISO

.177

WHIP

1.27

HR/9

1.44

BB%

8.3%

27.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.3%

HH%

48.3%

FB%

25.0%

HR/FB%

29.8%

Andrew Benintendi hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	426-1779	.239	.388	.149	56	8.3%	19.4%
vs RHP	335-1400	.239	.384	.144	42	8.9%	18.4%

Pitch-type matchup

Gavin Williams's arsenal × how Andrew Benintendi hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Gavin Williams throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	35%	96.6	21%	.432
Sweeper	22%	86.6	45%	.395
TOPCurveball	22%	82.1	31%	.338
TOPCutter	12%	91.7	18%	.349
Sinker	9%	95.9	9%	.392
Changeup	0%	88.2	0%	—

Andrew Benintendi vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	766	23%	.373	90.8
Sweeper	161	29%	.291	85.3
TOPCurveball	137	24%	.368	86.3
TOPCutter	186	27%	.380	89.6
Sinker	339	6%	.360	88.6
Changeup	336	24%	.354	81.8

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model64% OVER+2.8% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6

Plate Appearancesavg 3.6

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	8%	—	+450	-0.8	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	64%	+2.8%	-156	-3.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	23%	+0.5%	+340	-0.8	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-1.6%	+1400	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	16%	+2.8%	+687	-4.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+195	+0.6	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	46%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	32%	—	+160	-0.8	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=1,941 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-07-01

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	426-1779	.239	.388	.149	85	6	56	162	19.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	91-379	.240	.406	.166	17	2	14	25	23.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	335-1400	.239	.384	.144	68	4	42	137	18.4%
Last 15 days recent form	9-33	.273	.515	.242	2	0	2	1	15.2%
vs Gavin Williams tonight's starting pitcher	2-7	.286	.429	.143	1	0	0	1	0.0%
vs CLE tonight's opponent (full roster)	15-68	.221	.324	.103	4	0	1	7	22.1%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.305

wOBA0.315

delta+0.010 hot

n=282 PA

Spray chart

542 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play542

HR rate5.7%

Hard-hit (95+)41%

Avg exit velo88.4 mph

Ground ball35%

Line drive23%

Fly ball33%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-07-02	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-07-01	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-30	5	3	1	0	1	1	3-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-28	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-06-27	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-06-26	4	2	1	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-06-24	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-22	2	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-2 · 1 RBI
2026-06-21	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-06-20	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Andrew Benintendi across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.