← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +9.6% edge model 76% · grade S
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 76% +9.6% 60% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 12% +5.0% 0% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Mauricio Dubón, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 6-2 75% +76.3% A 8-2 80% +33.3% B 4-8 33% -47.2%
Combined 18-12 · n=30 · ROI +12.6% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Mauricio Dubón (RHB) vs Janson Junk RHP favors batter favors pitcher Janson Junk RHP · season · 85.6 IP · 368 BF
Mauricio Dubón hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 454-1746 .260 .375 .115 32 5.4% 13.4% vs RHP 317-1229 .258 .367 .109 22 5.2% 13.7%
Pitch-type matchup Janson Junk's arsenal × how Mauricio Dubón hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Janson Junk throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 36% 93.8 12% .370 Slider 26% 86.7 19% .393 Sweeper 15% 81.3 17% .309 Changeup 12% 87.6 23% .343 Curveball 10% 81.6 17% .415 Sinker 1% 93.6 0% .318
Mauricio Dubón vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 708 15% .290 85.8 Slider 338 24% .292 82.0 Sweeper 183 18% .306 81.5 Changeup 177 12% .231 83.5 Curveball 119 8% .327 80.1 Sinker 344 9% .360 87.9
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases20% Home Runs0% Singles60% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts10% Walks10% RBIs20% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases20%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 0.8
Our model 76% OVER +9.6% edge S
1 @BAL 07-25 0 @BAL 07-26 0 @NYM 07-27 1 @NYM 07-29 1 @NYM 07-29 0 vWSN 07-30 2 vWSN 07-31 1 vWSN 08-02 0 vMIA 08-04 2 vMIA 08-05
L5 60% 3/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 60% 12/20 2026 66% 84/127 2025 59% 72/123
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.6 Plate Appearances avg 3.6
4 5 3 4 4 3 4 3 2 4 Total Bases avg 0.8
1 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 2 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 11% — +425 +0.9 Sign in to save —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 26% — -137 +0.0 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -196 +230 +1256
Price legs
Splits Career n=1,845 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-04
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
454-1746 .260 .375 .115 95 5 32 99 13.4% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
137-517 .265 .395 .130 33 2 10 32 12.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
317-1229 .258 .367 .109 62 3 22 67 13.7% Last 15 days
recent form
10-45 .222 .244 .022 1 0 0 1 4.4% vs Janson Junk
tonight's starting pitcher
2-6 .333 .500 .167 1 0 0 0 0.0% vs MIA
tonight's opponent (full roster)
10-32 .313 .406 .094 3 0 0 2 9.4% @ Truist Park
tonight's stadium
4054-15026 .270 .404 .134 582 0 479 1362 13.2%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.282
wOBA 0.285
delta +0.003 hot
n=457 PA
Spray chart 704 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Janson Junk's mix Balls in play 704
HR rate 2.4%
Hard-hit (95+) 29%
Avg exit velo 85.4 mph
Ground ball 42%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 25%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-05 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB 2026-08-04 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-08-02 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 SB 2026-07-31 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 2 R · 1 K 2026-07-30 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-07-29 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 2026-07-29 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 2026-07-27 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-07-26 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-4 · 1 BB 2026-07-25 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 RBI
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Mauricio Dubón across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
