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Ozzie Albies
2B · SHB · RHP · ATL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ozzie Albies, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-2 | 33% | -38.4% |
| A | 1-1 | 50% | +378.5% |
| B | 1-4 | 20% | -73.3% |
Combined 3-7 · n=10 · ROI +27.5% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 30%
Matchup
Ozzie Albies (SHB) vs Michael King RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Michael King's arsenal × how Ozzie Albies hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 1.4
Singlesavg 1.1
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.1
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.3
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=2,187 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.305
wOBA0.322
delta+0.017 hot
n=340 PA
Spray chart
803 balls in play since 2025Balls in play803
HR rate3.6%
Hard-hit (95+)31%
Avg exit velo87.6 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive24%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-25.3%significant
n=393 games · 7/68 HR when active
+24.8%significant
n=416 games · 16/90 HR when active
-13.1%small sample
n=416 games · 1/12 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
// TONIGHT
4 / 6FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- +50% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
- -33% HR rate when playing at home.
- -25% HR rate when opposing starter coming off >7 days rest.
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+50%
63 yes / 352 no · 60 HRs
Playing at home
−33%
207 yes / 209 no · 60 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+31%
130 yes / 286 no · 60 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+29%
16 yes / 399 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−25%
68 yes / 325 no · 58 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+25%
90 yes / 326 no · 60 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−23%
59 yes / 356 no · 60 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+17%
333 yes / 82 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+15%
52 yes / 360 no · 60 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+15%
166 yes / 238 no · 60 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−13%
12 yes / 393 no · 59 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−13%
12 yes / 404 no · 60 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−12%
255 yes / 157 no · 60 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−12%
42 yes / 374 no · 60 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−11%
101 yes / 315 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+9%
72 yes / 294 no · 51 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−9%
219 yes / 197 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−8%
243 yes / 159 no · 55 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+5%
147 yes / 269 no · 60 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
179 yes / 232 no · 59 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 415 no · 60 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
156 yes / 260 no · 60 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
198 yes / 218 no · 60 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
89 yes / 316 no · 59 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
90 yes / 326 no · 60 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 412 no · 60 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ozzie Albies across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.