Ozzie Albies

2B · SHB · RHP · ATL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Nick Martinez (RHP)

Stadium

Truist Park

Model HR%

15.7%

Model Hits%

75.0%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Ozzie Albies, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	10-11	48%	+33.0%
A	5-6	45%	-16.8%
B	7-14	33%	-24.3%

Combined 22-31 · n=53 · ROI -0.0% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 31%

Matchup

Ozzie Albies (SHB) vs Nick Martinez RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Nick Martinez RHP · season · 169.8 IP · 730 BF

BAA

.259

wOBA

.309

SLG

.421

ISO

.163

WHIP

1.24

HR/9

1.33

BB%

4.1%

14.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.9%

HH%

33.9%

FB%

39.4%

HR/FB%

12.0%

Ozzie Albies hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	570-2280	.250	.414	.164	82	8.2%	16.2%
vs RHP	371-1616	.230	.392	.162	61	10.0%	18.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Nick Martinez's arsenal × how Ozzie Albies hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Nick Martinez throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Changeup	22%	78.6	28%	.275
Cutter	21%	89.1	16%	.368
Sinker	20%	92.5	9%	.320
Four-Seam	18%	92.6	10%	.429
Curveball	10%	79.8	15%	.368
Slider	9%	85.0	30%	.368
Pitchout	0%	92.4	—	—

Ozzie Albies vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Changeup	462	15%	.273	85.4
Cutter	245	24%	.348	84.3
Sinker	445	13%	.306	90.0
Four-Seam	966	18%	.346	90.6
Curveball	387	20%	.210	81.1
Slider	315	30%	.362	87.8
Pitchout	1	—	—	—

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

50%5/10 · L10 · avg 0.6

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0

Plate Appearancesavg 4.0

Hitsavg 0.6

Singlesavg 0.3

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.7

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-09-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	83%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=2,483 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-08

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	570-2280	.250	.414	.164	113	8	82	203	16.2%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	199-664	.300	.470	.170	46	2	21	24	11.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	371-1616	.230	.392	.162	67	6	61	179	18.3%
Last 15 days recent form	9-50	.180	.280	.100	2	0	1	5	20.0%
vs Nick Martinez tonight's starting pitcher	1-8	.125	.125	.000	0	0	0	0	25.0%
@ Truist Park tonight's stadium	5631-25911	.217	.397	.179	914	0	1245	2848	16.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.279

wOBA0.301

delta+0.022 hot

n=636 PA

Spray chart

1053 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph cross-wind

Balls in play1053

HR rate3.7%

Hard-hit (95+)29%

Avg exit velo87.4 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive24%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+37.3%significant

n=502 games · 19/100 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-21.8%significant

n=480 games · 9/83 HR when active

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

-20.8%significant

n=502 games · 1/16 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-22

// TONIGHT

1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY

Mixed signals tonight

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+26% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
−25% HR rate when playing at home.

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+49%

69 yes / 431 no · 71 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+37%

100 yes / 402 no · 71 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−31%

69 yes / 431 no · 71 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+26%

96 yes / 406 no · 71 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+26%

183 yes / 307 no · 71 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight

+26%

148 yes / 354 no · 71 HRs

Playing at hometonight

−25%

253 yes / 249 no · 71 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+24%

18 yes / 483 no · 71 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−22%

83 yes / 397 no · 69 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−21%

16 yes / 486 no · 71 HRs

// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+20%

407 yes / 94 no · 71 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−18%

275 yes / 227 no · 71 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−17%

55 yes / 447 no · 71 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+15%

66 yes / 435 no · 71 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+14%

84 yes / 357 no · 60 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−13%

12 yes / 478 no · 70 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−12%

209 yes / 288 no · 70 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−10%

131 yes / 359 no · 70 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+7%

210 yes / 292 no · 71 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+6%

291 yes / 194 no · 65 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 501 no · 71 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

neutral

362 yes / 139 no · 71 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

224 yes / 278 no · 71 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

neutral

184 yes / 318 no · 71 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

113 yes / 389 no · 71 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 501 no · 71 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-09	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-07	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-06	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-05	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-09-04	5	1	1	0	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-09-02	5	1	0	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-01	4	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-08-31	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-08-30	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Ozzie Albies across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.