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Matt Chapman
3B · RHB · RHP · SFG
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Matt Chapman, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-7 | 30% | -50.2% |
| A | 3-1 | 75% | +80.2% |
| B | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 6-9 · n=15 · ROI -18.8% · avg CLV -5.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Matt Chapman (RHB) vs Ryan Feltner RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Ryan Feltner's arsenal × how Matt Chapman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 0.4
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 0.5
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 1.5
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=365 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-30
xStats luck
xwOBA0.293
wOBA0.316
delta+0.023 hot
n=364 PA
Spray chart
590 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-windBalls in play590
HR rate5.3%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo91.0 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive22%
Fly ball23%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+19.1%small sample
n=304 games · 20/129 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY
No DNA factors in play tonight
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.65× HR rate
34 yes / 271 no · 42 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−30%
237 yes / 67 no · 42 HRs
// 10 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+19%
129 yes / 175 no · 42 HRs
Playing at home
+18%
159 yes / 146 no · 42 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−9%
34 yes / 271 no · 42 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−9%
117 yes / 188 no · 42 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
16 yes / 288 no · 42 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
93 yes / 212 no · 42 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Matt Chapman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.