Kyle Schwarber

DH · LHB · RHP · PHI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

NYM

Starter

Jonah Tong (RHP)

Stadium

Citi Field

Model HR%

28.2%

Model Hits%

62.2%

Model K%

27.1%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+2.4% edgemodel 79% · grade PASS

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	79%	+2.4%	90%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	28%	+1.1%	20%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Kyle Schwarber, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	14-6	70%	+32.0%
A	10-8	56%	+9.1%
B	12-22	35%	-7.7%

Combined 36-36 · n=72 · ROI +7.6% · avg CLV -1.5 pts · beat close 27%

Matchup

Kyle Schwarber (LHB) vs Jonah Tong RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Jonah Tong RHP · season · 25.6 IP · 110 BF

BAA

.220

wOBA

.274

SLG

.350

ISO

.130

WHIP

1.25

HR/9

0.70

BB%

9.1%

22.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

6.1%

HH%

31.8%

FB%

42.4%

HR/FB%

7.1%

Kyle Schwarber hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	558-2466	.226	.504	.278	196	16.5%	35.3%
vs RHP	336-1564	.215	.503	.288	128	16.6%	35.4%

Pitch-type matchup

Jonah Tong's arsenal × how Kyle Schwarber hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Jonah Tong throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	55%	95.3	19%	.432
TOPChangeup	27%	85.8	28%	.339
TOPCurveball	12%	78.1	19%	.264
Cutter	4%	89.7	14%	—
Slider	2%	87.1	0%	.336

Kyle Schwarber vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1078	23%	.581	97.9
TOPChangeup	405	33%	.519	93.2
TOPCurveball	359	44%	.524	89.0
Cutter	323	28%	.506	96.0
Slider	804	42%	.478	91.6

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.5

Our model62% OVER+0.1% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.6

Plate Appearancesavg 4.6

Hitsavg 0.5

Singlesavg 0.2

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 1.6

Walksavg 0.7

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+550	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	OVER	PASS	62%	+0.1%	-164	-0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	PASS	79%	+2.4%	-450	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	28%	+1.1%	+269	-0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	19%	—	+156	-0.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	18%	—	+450	-1.8	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	34%	—	+160	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	5%	—	+1100	-0.8	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	27%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	36%	—	+131	-0.2	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=2,953 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	558-2466	.226	.504	.278	90	4	196	487	35.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	222-902	.246	.508	.262	26	3	68	175	35.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	336-1564	.215	.503	.288	64	1	128	312	35.4%
Last 15 days recent form	10-49	.204	.510	.306	0	0	5	10	30.6%
vs NYM tonight's opponent (full roster)	17-67	.254	.627	.373	1	0	8	14	23.9%
@ Citi Field tonight's stadium	477-2498	.191	.441	.250	0	0	208	498	38.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.354

wOBA0.366

delta+0.012 hot

n=675 PA

Spray chart

777 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play777

HR rate12.7%

Hard-hit (95+)52%

Avg exit velo92.9 mph

Ground ball33%

Line drive25%

Fly ball33%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+25.4%significant

n=509 games · 70/228 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+20.8%significant

n=487 games · 31/96 HR when active

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-12.2%small sample

n=510 games · 20/86 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−20% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+33%

307 yes / 201 no · 137 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+25%

228 yes / 281 no · 137 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−25%

61 yes / 447 no · 137 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+21%

96 yes / 391 no · 131 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight

−20%

236 yes / 123 no · 96 HRs

// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−24%

9 yes / 489 no · 135 HRs

Playing at home

+15%

263 yes / 247 no · 137 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−13%

349 yes / 161 no · 137 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−12%

86 yes / 424 no · 137 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−11%

16 yes / 494 no · 137 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−10%

273 yes / 217 no · 131 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−9%

404 yes / 105 no · 137 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+9%

376 yes / 132 no · 137 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+9%

117 yes / 392 no · 137 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−9%

98 yes / 412 no · 137 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+8%

114 yes / 396 no · 137 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−7%

234 yes / 276 no · 137 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−7%

69 yes / 439 no · 137 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−6%

117 yes / 381 no · 135 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

neutral

244 yes / 261 no · 136 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

162 yes / 348 no · 137 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

20 yes / 489 no · 137 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

62 yes / 372 no · 116 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

203 yes / 299 no · 133 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

neutral

89 yes / 419 no · 137 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 508 no · 137 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 510 no · 137 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	5	1	1	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-18	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-17	5	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-16	5	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-15	4	1	0	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB
2026-09-13	5	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 BB
2026-09-12	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-11	5	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-5 · 3 K
2026-09-10	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-09	5	1	0	1	0	3	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R · 3 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Kyle Schwarber across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.