Kyle Schwarber

DH · LHB · RHP · PHI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

WSH

Starter

Foster Griffin (LHP)

Stadium

Nationals Park

Model HR%

31.4%

Model Hits%

67.8%

Model K%

27.8%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+4.5% edgemodel 31% · grade B

Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +30.4% lift over 203 games · strong vs the Cutter (30% usage, .506 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	31%	+4.5%	40%	LEAN
Hits	OVER 1.5	27%	+2.0%	30%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Kyle Schwarber, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	2-4	33%	-46.0%
A	3-1	75%	+42.5%
B	1-4	20%	-67.2%

Combined 6-9 · n=15 · ROI -29.5% · avg CLV -3.1 pts · beat close 42%

Matchup

Kyle Schwarber (LHB) vs Foster Griffin LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Foster Griffin LHP · season · 85.8 IP · 369 BF

BAA

.223

wOBA

.329

SLG

.389

ISO

.166

WHIP

1.25

HR/9

1.57

BB%

8.7%

23.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

4.6%

HH%

38.1%

FB%

34.5%

HR/FB%

22.4%

Kyle Schwarber hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	499-2184	.228	.516	.287	179	16.6%	35.2%
vs LHP	199-802	.248	.517	.269	62	16.1%	35.7%

Pitch-type matchup

Foster Griffin's arsenal × how Kyle Schwarber hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Foster Griffin throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPCutter	30%	87.8	17%	.401
TOPFour-Seam	18%	91.5	17%	.403
TOPSweeper	15%	79.9	29%	.414
Changeup	11%	82.6	32%	.269
Sinker	11%	91.0	18%	.289
Curveball	9%	78.0	22%	.427
Splitter	6%	81.2	31%	.433

Kyle Schwarber vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPCutter	323	28%	.506	96.0
TOPFour-Seam	1078	23%	.581	97.9
TOPSweeper	306	45%	.428	86.0
Changeup	405	33%	.519	93.2
Sinker	639	16%	.542	95.2
Curveball	359	44%	.524	89.0
Splitter	177	45%	.479	94.1

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.5

Our model68% OVER-2.8% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5

Plate Appearancesavg 4.5

Hitsavg 1.5

Singlesavg 0.9

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 3.3

Home Runsavg 0.6

Strikeoutsavg 1.5

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	6%	—	+500	-0.7	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	OVER	PASS	68%	-2.8%	-240	+9.7	Sign in
BEST1.5	OVER	PASS	27%	+2.0%	+300	-1.7	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-2.3%	+1200	+0.0	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	31%	+4.5%	+272	+1.0	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	22%	—	+130	-1.0	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	41%	—	+155	+0.0	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	PASS	28%	—	-137	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	A	48%	—	+140	-0.2	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=2,618 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	499-2184	.228	.516	.287	82	4	179	434	35.2%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	199-802	.248	.517	.269	24	3	62	154	35.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	300-1382	.217	.514	.297	58	1	117	280	34.9%
Last 15 days recent form	15-47	.319	.638	.319	0	0	5	8	38.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.386

wOBA0.398

delta+0.012 hot

n=340 PA

Spray chart

599 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play599

HR rate13.9%

Hard-hit (95+)56%

Avg exit velo93.9 mph

Ground ball33%

Line drive24%

Fly ball35%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+30.4%significant

n=432 games · 66/203 HR when active

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+28.3%significant

n=410 games · 28/77 HR when active

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-16.6%small sample

n=433 games · 14/63 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

1 / 3FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning against

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+30%

203 yes / 229 no · 121 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+28%

77 yes / 333 no · 116 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−27%

51 yes / 381 no · 121 HRs

// 25 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−25%

9 yes / 413 no · 119 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+20%

265 yes / 167 no · 121 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−17%

189 yes / 104 no · 83 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−17%

63 yes / 370 no · 121 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−14%

233 yes / 182 no · 116 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+14%

81 yes / 349 no · 121 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−13%

56 yes / 373 no · 120 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−12%

98 yes / 335 no · 121 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+12%

107 yes / 326 no · 121 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−10%

339 yes / 93 no · 121 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−9%

286 yes / 147 no · 121 HRs

Playing at home

+8%

223 yes / 210 no · 121 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−6%

215 yes / 213 no · 120 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−6%

13 yes / 420 no · 121 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

neutral

281 yes / 148 no · 120 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

194 yes / 232 no · 118 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

150 yes / 283 no · 121 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

19 yes / 413 no · 121 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

169 yes / 264 no · 121 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

106 yes / 325 no · 121 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

51 yes / 317 no · 102 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

neutral

82 yes / 340 no · 119 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 433 no · 121 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 429 no · 120 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	1	1	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-20	5	4	3	0	0	4-for-5 · 3 HR · 6 RBI · 4 R
2026-06-18	5	1	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 R · 2 K
2026-06-17	4	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-06-16	4	1	1	2	1	1-for-2 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-06-15	5	1	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-14	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-06-13	6	3	0	1	2	3-for-5 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-12	3	1	0	0	2	1-for-3 · 2 K
2026-06-10	5	2	1	1	2	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Kyle Schwarber across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.