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Lane Thomas
CF · RHB · RHP · ATL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Lane Thomas, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-5 | 55% | +2.0% |
| A | 8-2 | 80% | +104.6% |
| B | 0-4 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 14-11 · n=25 · ROI +26.7% · avg CLV -2.1 pts · beat close 37%
Matchup
Lane Thomas (RHB) vs Janson Junk RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.4Plate Appearancesavg 3.4
Hitsavg 0.5
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.8
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=352 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.307
wOBA0.314
delta+0.007 hot
n=349 PA
Spray chart
317 balls in play since 2025Balls in play317
HR rate5.0%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.7 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive23%
Fly ball25%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-20
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −25% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
−25%
140 yes / 39 no · 30 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−19%
78 yes / 102 no · 30 HRs
Playing at home
+14%
88 yes / 92 no · 30 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−14%
24 yes / 156 no · 30 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+5%
22 yes / 158 no · 30 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
6 yes / 173 no · 30 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
48 yes / 132 no · 30 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Lane Thomas across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.