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Shohei Ohtani
TWP · LHB · RHP · LAD
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Shohei Ohtani, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-2 | 33% | -50.6% |
| A | 2-1 | 67% | +71.2% |
| B | 1-1 | 50% | -26.0% |
Combined 4-4 · n=8 · ROI +1.2% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 25%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5Plate Appearancesavg 4.5
Hitsavg 1.6
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 3.2
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=2,728 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.429
wOBA0.417
delta−0.012 due
n=490 PA
Spray chart
776 balls in play since 2025Balls in play776
HR rate11.2%
Hard-hit (95+)56%
Avg exit velo94.3 mph
Ground ball40%
Line drive22%
Fly ball34%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-27.0%significant
n=380 games · 9/53 HR when active
+25.9%significant
n=433 games · 32/93 HR when active
+22.8%significant
n=431 games · 21/60 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−27%
53 yes / 327 no · 101 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+26%
93 yes / 340 no · 120 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+23%
60 yes / 371 no · 119 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−21%
59 yes / 373 no · 120 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+19%
92 yes / 340 no · 119 HRs
Playing at home
+19%
222 yes / 213 no · 120 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+18%
59 yes / 349 no · 114 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+17%
205 yes / 230 no · 120 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−17%
27 yes / 408 no · 120 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+16%
341 yes / 93 no · 120 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−16%
22 yes / 412 no · 120 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+16%
227 yes / 195 no · 114 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−14%
85 yes / 350 no · 120 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+13%
201 yes / 232 no · 120 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+11%
85 yes / 347 no · 119 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+10%
41 yes / 391 no · 120 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−9%
321 yes / 110 no · 119 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 413 no · 117 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
117 yes / 318 no · 120 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 434 no · 120 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 430 no · 119 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
58 yes / 357 no · 117 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
60 yes / 375 no · 120 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
neutral
318 yes / 117 no · 120 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
162 yes / 266 no · 117 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
202 yes / 228 no · 118 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
219 yes / 86 no · 81 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Shohei Ohtani across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.