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Ronald Acuña Jr.
RF · RHB · RHP · ATL
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Ronald Acuña Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-0 | 100% | +118.4% |
| A | 2-0 | 100% | +45.0% |
| B | 6-3 | 67% | +32.5% |
Combined 13-3 · n=16 · ROI +60.9% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 2.3
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=449 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.371
wOBA0.364
delta−0.007 due
n=449 PA
Spray chart
526 balls in play since 2025Balls in play526
HR rate7.4%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo91.3 mph
Ground ball44%
Line drive21%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+29.5%significant
n=324 games · 14/57 HR when active
+24.8%significant
n=362 games · 46/223 HR when active
+20.3%significant
n=379 games · 17/73 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+36%
59 yes / 318 no · 73 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−33%
81 yes / 192 no · 51 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+29%
57 yes / 267 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+25%
223 yes / 139 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+20%
73 yes / 306 no · 73 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+20%
83 yes / 296 no · 73 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−18%
274 yes / 105 no · 73 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+16%
140 yes / 228 no · 71 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−15%
46 yes / 333 no · 73 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−14%
22 yes / 356 no · 73 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−13%
10 yes / 361 no · 72 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−13%
100 yes / 271 no · 72 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−12%
134 yes / 240 no · 71 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+12%
302 yes / 76 no · 73 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−12%
49 yes / 328 no · 73 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+11%
119 yes / 260 no · 73 HRs
Playing at home
−10%
199 yes / 180 no · 73 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+10%
57 yes / 299 no · 67 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−8%
181 yes / 198 no · 73 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+8%
47 yes / 332 no · 73 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
2 yes / 377 no · 73 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−6%
253 yes / 125 no · 72 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+5%
44 yes / 334 no · 72 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
76 yes / 303 no · 73 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
156 yes / 223 no · 73 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 379 no · 73 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 378 no · 72 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Ronald Acuña Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.