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Hits OVER 0.5 +13.9% edge model 72% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (50% usage, .424 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 72% +13.9% 60% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 17% +5.4% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jesús Sánchez, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 3-3 50% -14.5% A 2-1 67% +195.0% B 2-2 50% +154.5%
Combined 7-6 · n=13 · ROI +85.9% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Jesús Sánchez (LHB) vs Ben Brown RHP favors batter favors pitcher Ben Brown RHP · season · 60.5 IP · 260 BF
Jesús Sánchez hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 63-220 .286 .464 .177 8 6.4% 22.3% vs RHP 57-189 .302 .503 .201 8 6.9% 21.7%
Pitch-type matchup Ben Brown's arsenal × how Jesús Sánchez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Ben Brown throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam50% 96.0 13% .416 TOP Knuckle Curve39% 87.2 43% .391 Sinker 6% 96.8 14% .244 Changeup 5% 90.5 26% .331
Jesús Sánchez vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam961 21% .424 93.8 TOP Knuckle Curve59 32% .478 92.8 Sinker 281 13% .349 93.3 Changeup 337 30% .342 89.3
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases40% Home Runs10% Singles50% Doubles30% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks20% RBIs10% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 1.0
Our model 72% OVER +13.9% edge S
0 @ATL 06-03 1 vBAL 06-05 2 vBAL 06-06 2 vBAL 06-07 0 vPHI 06-08 3 vPHI 06-09 0 vNYY 06-13 0 vNYY 06-14 1 @BOS 06-17 1 @BOS 06-18
L5 60% 3/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 65% 13/20 2026 64% 56/87 2025 55% 74/134
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.6 Plate Appearances avg 3.6
4 4 4 4 1 4 4 4 3 4 Total Bases avg 1.6
0 1 2 3 0 7 0 0 2 1 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.7
0 0 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-19 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 9% — +475 -0.8 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 72% +13.9% -139 +0.4 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 26% +5.6% +380 -2.7 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -0.7% +1600 -0.4 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 17% +5.4% +741 +0.7 Sign in
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 53% — +144 -3.3 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 43% — +170 +1.9 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -139 +380 +1600 +741
Price legs
Splits Career n=235 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-17
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
63-220 .286 .464 .177 15 0 8 15 22.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
6-31 .194 .226 .032 1 0 0 1 25.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
57-189 .302 .503 .201 14 0 8 14 21.7% Last 15 days
recent form
9-26 .346 .577 .231 3 0 1 2 23.1% vs Ben Brown
tonight's starting pitcher
3-7 .429 .857 .429 0 0 1 0 28.6% vs CHC
tonight's opponent (full roster)
8-36 .222 .444 .222 0 1 2 4 22.2%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.319
wOBA 0.315
delta −0.004 due
n=232 PA
Spray chart 511 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Ben Brown's mix Balls in play 511
HR rate 4.3%
Hard-hit (95+) 44%
Avg exit velo 91.0 mph
Ground ball 47%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 23%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-18 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-17 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 2B 2026-06-14 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-13 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-09 4 3 1 0 1 0 0 3-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-08 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-07 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-06 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-05 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 2026-06-03 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jesús Sánchez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
