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Daulton Varsho
CF · LHB · RHP · HOU
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Daulton Varsho, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 5-3 | 63% | +23.9% |
| A | 4-2 | 67% | +25.7% |
| B | 2-4 | 33% | -45.2% |
Combined 11-9 · n=20 · ROI +3.7% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 50%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.7
Tonight's lines
2026-08-07 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=1,896 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.294
wOBA0.312
delta+0.018 hot
n=394 PA
Spray chart
524 balls in play since 2025Balls in play524
HR rate5.7%
Hard-hit (95+)38%
Avg exit velo86.8 mph
Ground ball35%
Line drive24%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+21.8%significant
n=284 games · 22/122 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY
No DNA factors in play tonight
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+48%
44 yes / 240 no · 45 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+22%
122 yes / 162 no · 45 HRs
// 10 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−19%
36 yes / 248 no · 45 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+12%
20 yes / 263 no · 45 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−11%
198 yes / 85 no · 45 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−9%
96 yes / 188 no · 45 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−6%
93 yes / 191 no · 45 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
149 yes / 135 no · 45 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Daulton Varsho across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.