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Austin Riley
3B · RHB · RHP · ATL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+8.1% edgemodel 69% · grade S
Why: Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260): +66.9% lift over 89 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (36% usage, .429 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Austin Riley, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-8 | 47% | +32.1% |
| A | 14-6 | 70% | +32.2% |
| B | 5-8 | 38% | +43.7% |
Combined 26-22 · n=48 · ROI +35.3% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 38%
Matchup
Austin Riley (RHB) vs Janson Junk RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Janson Junk's arsenal × how Austin Riley hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.4
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.8
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=2,171 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.287
wOBA0.298
delta+0.011 hot
n=470 PA
Spray chart
585 balls in play since 2025Balls in play585
HR rate5.5%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo91.9 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive24%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+66.9%significant
n=414 games · 23/89 HR when active
-34.2%significant
n=413 games · 5/56 HR when active
+48.8%significant
n=363 games · 17/71 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −25% HR rate when ≥1 career hr vs this pitcher.
- +24% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
- +23% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
1.68× HR rate
295 yes / 120 no · 69 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
1.67× HR rate
89 yes / 325 no · 68 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+49%
71 yes / 292 no · 59 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
0.66× HR rate
56 yes / 357 no · 68 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−33%
86 yes / 213 no · 47 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitchertonight
−25%
47 yes / 368 no · 69 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
+24%
189 yes / 221 no · 67 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight
+23%
153 yes / 248 no · 66 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+22%
57 yes / 357 no · 69 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−31%
12 yes / 403 no · 69 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+18%
233 yes / 166 no · 65 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+17%
275 yes / 138 no · 68 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−15%
327 yes / 87 no · 69 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+13%
70 yes / 315 no · 63 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−10%
88 yes / 326 no · 68 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+9%
185 yes / 229 no · 68 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−7%
231 yes / 184 no · 69 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+6%
10 yes / 390 no · 66 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+6%
174 yes / 241 no · 69 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
210 yes / 205 no · 69 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
82 yes / 332 no · 68 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
1 yes / 414 no · 69 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
56 yes / 358 no · 69 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
17 yes / 397 no · 69 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
108 yes / 307 no · 69 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
97 yes / 303 no · 66 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 413 no · 68 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Austin Riley across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.