Austin Riley

3B · RHB · RHP · ATL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

CHC

Starter

Kevin Gausman (RHP)

Stadium

Wrigley Field

Model HR%

21.1%

Model Hits%

65.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+6.5% edgemodel 61% · grade A

Why: Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph: +56.5% lift over 74 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (53% usage, .429 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	61%	+6.5%	60%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	21%	+3.3%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Austin Riley, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	15-15	50%	+46.1%
A	15-12	56%	+9.2%
B	12-16	43%	+31.1%

Combined 42-43 · n=85 · ROI +29.4% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 38%

Matchup

Austin Riley (RHB) vs Kevin Gausman RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Kevin Gausman RHP · season · 175.3 IP · 754 BF

BAA

.254

wOBA

.316

SLG

.410

ISO

.156

WHIP

1.31

HR/9

1.33

BB%

6.6%

23.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.1%

HH%

42.0%

FB%

36.0%

HR/FB%

15.8%

Austin Riley hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	534-2102	.254	.449	.195	96	8.8%	29.7%
vs RHP	408-1607	.254	.446	.192	71	8.1%	30.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Kevin Gausman's arsenal × how Austin Riley hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Kevin Gausman throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	53%	94.3	14%	.393
TOPSplitter	38%	84.6	38%	.318
Slider	9%	83.6	34%	.433
Sinker	0%	92.2	0%	.008

Austin Riley vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	949	24%	.429	94.0
TOPSplitter	72	32%	.518	92.0
Slider	401	38%	.370	89.9
Sinker	444	16%	.422	92.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.6

Our model61% OVER+6.5% edgeA

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9

Plate Appearancesavg 3.9

Hitsavg 0.6

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.9

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	5%	—	+625	+0.5	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	61%	+6.5%	-120	+0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	19%	+0.7%	+400	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	21%	+3.3%	+475	+5.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	12%	—	+225	+3.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	42%	—	+170	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+1000	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	30%	—	+200	+2.6	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=2,305 PA · 2023-03-30 → 2026-09-13

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	534-2102	.254	.449	.195	105	8	96	203	29.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	126-495	.255	.457	.202	23	1	25	62	28.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	408-1607	.254	.446	.192	82	7	71	141	30.1%
Last 15 days recent form	9-40	.225	.425	.200	0	1	2	4	35.0%
vs Kevin Gausman tonight's starting pitcher	2-6	.333	.833	.500	0	0	1	0	16.7%
vs CHC tonight's opponent (full roster)	20-74	.270	.500	.230	3	1	4	8	29.7%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.293

wOBA0.297

delta+0.004 hot

n=604 PA

Spray chart

669 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play669

HR rate5.4%

Hard-hit (95+)47%

Avg exit velo91.9 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive25%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+56.5%significant

n=393 games · 18/74 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+51.6%significant

n=452 games · 24/102 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

-30.4%significant

n=450 games · 6/61 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning favorable

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+26% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

1.63× HR rate

295 yes / 157 no · 74 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

1.56× HR rate

74 yes / 319 no · 62 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

1.52× HR rate

102 yes / 350 no · 74 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−30%

61 yes / 389 no · 73 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight

+26%

256 yes / 178 no · 69 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−25%

94 yes / 240 no · 52 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+24%

67 yes / 384 no · 74 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+23%

216 yes / 231 no · 72 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−23%

53 yes / 399 no · 74 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−21%

15 yes / 437 no · 74 HRs

// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−17%

359 yes / 92 no · 74 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−15%

115 yes / 322 no · 71 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+13%

164 yes / 274 no · 71 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

+10%

3 yes / 449 no · 74 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+10%

190 yes / 262 no · 74 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+6%

76 yes / 349 no · 68 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+6%

10 yes / 427 no · 71 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

231 yes / 221 no · 74 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

17 yes / 434 no · 74 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

neutral

89 yes / 362 no · 73 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

235 yes / 217 no · 74 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

neutral

312 yes / 138 no · 73 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

120 yes / 332 no · 74 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

199 yes / 253 no · 74 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

56 yes / 395 no · 74 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

85 yes / 367 no · 74 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 450 no · 73 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-14	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-09-13	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	1	0	1	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-10	3	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-09	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-08	3	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-3 · 2 K
2026-09-07	3	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-09-06	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 3B · 1 RBI
2026-09-05	3	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Austin Riley across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.