Nick Fortes

C · RHB · RHP · TBR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Michael Wacha (RHP)

Stadium

Tropicana Field

Model HR%

10.3%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.8% edgemodel 10% · grade B

Why: strong vs the Cutter (15% usage, .341 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	10%	+3.8%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Nick Fortes, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	2-3	40%	+51.8%
A	1-2	33%	-61.9%
B	0-2	0%	-100.0%

Combined 3-7 · n=10 · ROI -12.7% · avg CLV -10.5 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Nick Fortes (RHB) vs Michael Wacha RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Michael Wacha RHP · season · 97.9 IP · 421 BF

BAA

.239

wOBA

.328

SLG

.416

ISO

.177

WHIP

1.31

HR/9

1.10

BB%

8.6%

19.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.7%

HH%

40.2%

FB%

32.6%

HR/FB%

15.4%

Nick Fortes hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	229-1069	.214	.307	.093	17	6.6%	16.3%
vs RHP	141-685	.206	.291	.085	11	6.7%	17.1%

Pitch-type matchup

Michael Wacha's arsenal × how Nick Fortes hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Michael Wacha throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Four-Seam	28%	93.0	16%	.389
Changeup	24%	80.0	28%	.297
Cutter	15%	88.4	15%	.372
Sinker	14%	93.1	11%	.396
Slider	11%	84.8	28%	.372
Curveball	8%	75.4	31%	.344

Nick Fortes vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Four-Seam	425	9%	.264	88.6
Changeup	153	24%	.264	83.2
Cutter	123	10%	.341	87.4
Sinker	277	6%	.304	85.2
Slider	214	29%	.258	83.4
Curveball	100	16%	.308	88.8

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8

Plate Appearancesavg 3.8

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.1

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.3

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	10%	+3.8%	+1448	-0.0	Sign in

Splits

Career n=1,145 PA · 2023-03-31 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Career all history	229-1069	.214	.307	.093	46	1	17	76	16.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	88-384	.229	.336	.107	23	0	6	27	14.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	141-685	.206	.291	.085	23	1	11	49	17.1%
Last 15 days recent form	8-23	.348	.478	.130	3	0	0	3	8.7%
@ Tropicana Field tonight's stadium	963-2273	.424	.604	.180	410	0	0	324	6.4%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.260

wOBA0.279

delta+0.019 hot

n=195 PA

Spray chart

343 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play343

HR rate2.0%

Hard-hit (95+)42%

Avg exit velo86.2 mph

Ground ball48%

Line drive20%

Fly ball20%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-06-20	3	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-06-16	3	0	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-06-15	4	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-06-12	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 2 R · 1 K
2026-06-10	4	4	2	0	0	4-for-4 · 2 2B · 3 R
2026-06-09	4	2	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-06-08	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-06	3	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-06-05	5	0	0	0	0	0-for-5

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Nick Fortes across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.