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Hits UNDER 0.5 +2.3% edge model 32% · grade PASS
Why: struggles vs the Sweeper (15% usage, .256 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 0.5 32% +2.3% 30% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 8% +2.0% 0% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Jake Mangum, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-1 50% -25.5% A — — — B 2-1 67% -9.1%
Combined 3-2 · n=5 · ROI -15.7% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Jake Mangum (SHB) vs Foster Griffin LHP favors batter favors pitcher Foster Griffin LHP · season · 98.1 IP · 422 BF
Jake Mangum hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 186-642 .290 .363 .073 6 5.6% 17.3% vs LHP 49-187 .262 .310 .048 1 4.6% 15.5%
Pitch-type matchup Foster Griffin's arsenal × how Jake Mangum hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Foster Griffin throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Cutter30% 87.8 17% .401 TOP Four-Seam18% 91.5 17% .403 Sweeper 15% 79.9 29% .414 Changeup 11% 82.6 32% .269 Sinker 11% 91.0 18% .289 Curveball 9% 78.0 22% .427 Splitter 6% 81.2 31% .433
Jake Mangum vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Cutter126 18% .405 81.1 TOP Four-Seam668 19% .383 88.5 Sweeper 84 11% .256 82.8 Changeup 241 19% .259 81.3 Sinker 275 12% .248 87.8 Curveball 136 11% .289 85.2 Splitter 78 25% .255 82.8
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases60% Home Runs0% Singles60% Doubles30% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks20% RBIs20% Runs Scored60% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases10%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 1.4
Our model 32% UNDER +2.3% edge PASS
3 06-21 0 vSEA 06-23 1 vSEA 06-24 0 vSEA 06-25 2 vCIN 06-26 2 vCIN 06-27 0 vCIN 06-28 1 @PHI 06-29 2 @PHI 07-01 3 @PHI 07-02
L5 80% 4/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 75% 15/20 2026 59% 47/79 2025 66% 78/118
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.4 Plate Appearances avg 4.4
4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 5 Total Bases avg 1.7
4 0 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 4 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.0
0 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-07-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 56% — -160 -1.4 Sign in to save —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 53% — -137 +0.0 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits UNDER 0.5+232 Hits UNDER 1.5-300 Hits OVER 2.5+800 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1643
Price legs
Splits Career n=680 PA · 2024-03-15 → 2026-07-01
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Career
all history
186-642 .290 .363 .073 27 1 6 38 17.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
49-187 .262 .310 .048 6 0 1 9 15.5% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
137-455 .301 .385 .084 21 1 5 29 18.0% Last 15 days
recent form
12-40 .300 .375 .075 3 0 0 3 25.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.257
wOBA 0.295
delta +0.038 hot
n=227 PA
Spray chart 514 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Foster Griffin's mix Balls in play 514
HR rate 1.2%
Hard-hit (95+) 32%
Avg exit velo 85.8 mph
Ground ball 62%
Line drive 20%
Fly ball 14%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-07-02 5 3 1 0 0 0 1 3-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 R · 1 K 2026-07-01 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-29 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-28 5 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-27 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-26 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-25 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-24 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-06-23 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-21 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 3-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Jake Mangum across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.