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Nathaniel Lowe
DH · LHB · RHP · CLE
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+8.5% edgemodel 67% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Sweeper (20% usage, .354 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nathaniel Lowe, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-5 | 62% | +30.0% |
| A | 3-5 | 38% | -27.5% |
| B | 4-4 | 50% | -24.2% |
Combined 15-14 · n=29 · ROI -0.8% · avg CLV +1.3 pts · beat close 55%
Matchup
Nathaniel Lowe (LHB) vs Nolan McLean RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Nolan McLean's arsenal × how Nathaniel Lowe hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 1.4
Singlesavg 0.9
Doublesavg 0.5
Total Basesavg 1.9
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=295 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.322
wOBA0.339
delta+0.017 hot
n=295 PA
Spray chart
595 balls in play since 2025Balls in play595
HR rate5.2%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo89.9 mph
Ground ball44%
Line drive26%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+15.4%small sample
n=360 games · 21/174 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
1 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +56% HR rate when playing at home.
- −29% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
- −25% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Playing at hometonight
1.56× HR rate
170 yes / 191 no · 40 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight
−29%
46 yes / 314 no · 40 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
−25%
285 yes / 75 no · 40 HRs
// 9 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+18%
145 yes / 215 no · 40 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−17%
16 yes / 344 no · 40 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+16%
147 yes / 214 no · 40 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+15%
174 yes / 186 no · 40 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
126 yes / 235 no · 40 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nathaniel Lowe across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.