Brandon Lowe

2B · LHB · RHP · PIT

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

MIL

Starter

Dustin May (RHP)

Stadium

American Family Field

Model HR%

20.9%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+12.5% edgemodel 71% · grade S

Why: NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): -24.1% lift over 200 games · strong vs the Sinker (29% usage, .470 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	71%	+12.5%	80%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	21%	+3.0%	20%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Brandon Lowe, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	8-10	44%	-27.9%
A	11-6	65%	+44.9%
B	5-11	31%	+20.8%

Combined 24-27 · n=51 · ROI +11.7% · avg CLV -6.0 pts · beat close 23%

Matchup

Brandon Lowe (LHB) vs Dustin May RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Dustin May RHP · season · 112.3 IP · 483 BF

BAA

.248

wOBA

.292

SLG

.350

ISO

.102

WHIP

1.35

HR/9

0.56

BB%

8.9%

22.6%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.0%

HH%

44.6%

FB%

32.7%

HR/FB%

8.0%

Brandon Lowe hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	111-443	.251	.467	.217	23	9.4%	30.5%
vs RHP	84-308	.273	.532	.260	19	10.5%	26.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Dustin May's arsenal × how Brandon Lowe hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Dustin May throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSweeper	33%	85.3	27%	.357
TOPSinker	29%	94.9	10%	.431
TOPFour-Seam	19%	96.0	20%	.356
TOPCutter	13%	92.4	19%	.340
Changeup	3%	90.1	0%	.459
Curveball	2%	83.2	30%	.500
Pitchout	0%	95.7	—	—

Brandon Lowe vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSweeper	214	45%	.359	88.4
TOPSinker	396	18%	.470	94.4
TOPFour-Seam	908	28%	.540	95.2
TOPCutter	231	26%	.446	93.0
Changeup	381	30%	.416	86.8
Curveball	214	32%	.405	89.6
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.4

Our model71% OVER+12.5% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5

Plate Appearancesavg 4.5

Hitsavg 1.4

Singlesavg 0.9

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 2.3

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 1.6

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	8%	—	+450	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	71%	+12.5%	-139	-1.4	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	A	29%	+5.9%	+300	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	7%	-0.4%	+1300	+0.9	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	21%	+3.0%	+461	+0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	15%	—	+215	-0.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	52%	—	+140	-1.8	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+900	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	15%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	38%	—	+134	+0.4	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=489 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	111-443	.251	.467	.217	25	1	23	46	30.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	27-135	.200	.319	.119	4	0	4	10	38.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	84-308	.273	.532	.260	21	1	19	36	26.9%
Last 15 days recent form	18-53	.340	.528	.189	4	0	2	4	32.1%
vs Dustin May tonight's starting pitcher	1-4	.250	1.000	.750	0	0	1	2	0.0%
vs MIL tonight's opponent (full roster)	14-51	.275	.431	.157	2	0	2	4	29.4%
@ American Family Field tonight's stadium	504-1470	.343	.343	.000	0	0	0	0	44.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.324

wOBA0.333

delta+0.009 hot

n=487 PA

Spray chart

681 balls in play since 2025· wind 2 mph cross-wind

Balls in play681

HR rate8.1%

Hard-hit (95+)47%

Avg exit velo91.7 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive26%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-24.1%significant

n=374 games · 29/174 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+29.7%significant

n=373 games · 17/64 HR when active

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

-21.3%significant

n=325 games · 7/49 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04

// TONIGHT

2 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY

Mixed signals tonight

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+46% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
−39% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
−24% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
+20% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

+46%

272 yes / 102 no · 75 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight

0.61× HR rate

46 yes / 329 no · 75 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+30%

64 yes / 309 no · 75 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−25%

28 yes / 346 no · 75 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight

−24%

174 yes / 200 no · 75 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+24%

142 yes / 227 no · 74 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−21%

49 yes / 276 no · 65 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

+20%

264 yes / 107 no · 74 HRs

// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−20%

224 yes / 142 no · 71 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+19%

151 yes / 224 no · 75 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+19%

62 yes / 309 no · 74 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−18%

136 yes / 228 no · 75 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−16%

51 yes / 324 no · 75 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+15%

195 yes / 174 no · 74 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−13%

4 yes / 360 no · 75 HRs

Playing at home

−12%

204 yes / 171 no · 75 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

−10%

3 yes / 372 no · 75 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+10%

203 yes / 62 no · 52 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

+9%

7 yes / 368 no · 75 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+7%

74 yes / 300 no · 75 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−6%

116 yes / 259 no · 75 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+6%

100 yes / 275 no · 75 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

57 yes / 292 no · 71 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

109 yes / 266 no · 75 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

236 yes / 139 no · 75 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

68 yes / 306 no · 75 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 371 no · 74 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-08-04	4	2	0	0	0	2	2-for-4 · 2 K
2026-08-03	5	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 R · 2 K
2026-08-02	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-08-01	5	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-31	5	3	1	0	0	2	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 2 K
2026-07-30	4	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-07-29	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-28	6	2	1	1	1	0	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-07-27	5	3	1	0	0	2	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Brandon Lowe across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.