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Brandon Lowe
2B · LHB · RHP · PIT
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Brandon Lowe, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-7 | 22% | -1.5% |
| A | 1-0 | 100% | +62.1% |
| B | 1-4 | 20% | -72.4% |
Combined 4-11 · n=15 · ROI -20.9% · avg CLV -7.0 pts · beat close 22%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.7Plate Appearancesavg 4.7
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.5
Walksavg 0.4
Splits
Career n=328 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.330
wOBA0.344
delta+0.014 hot
n=327 PA
Spray chart
579 balls in play since 2025Balls in play579
HR rate8.6%
Hard-hit (95+)47%
Avg exit velo91.4 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive25%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-26.1%significant
n=336 games · 27/161 HR when active
+29.4%significant
n=335 games · 17/63 HR when active
+27.9%significant
n=336 games · 17/64 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+35%
244 yes / 92 no · 69 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−33%
33 yes / 304 no · 69 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+29%
63 yes / 272 no · 69 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+29%
113 yes / 224 no · 69 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+28%
64 yes / 272 no · 69 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−26%
161 yes / 175 no · 69 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−25%
27 yes / 309 no · 69 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−20%
47 yes / 245 no · 59 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−18%
117 yes / 209 no · 69 HRs
Playing at home
−15%
187 yes / 150 no · 69 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+14%
177 yes / 154 no · 68 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−13%
200 yes / 128 no · 65 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+13%
222 yes / 110 no · 67 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+12%
6 yes / 331 no · 69 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 323 no · 69 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+8%
54 yes / 278 no · 67 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−8%
115 yes / 222 no · 69 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−7%
109 yes / 228 no · 69 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
2 yes / 335 no · 69 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+6%
78 yes / 259 no · 69 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+6%
49 yes / 262 no · 65 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−6%
180 yes / 52 no · 46 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−6%
137 yes / 194 no · 68 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+5%
205 yes / 132 no · 69 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
41 yes / 296 no · 69 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
57 yes / 279 no · 69 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 332 no · 67 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Brandon Lowe across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.